Arms control

The Last Remaining Nuclear Arms Control Treaty Between the U.S. and Russia Could Expire in One Year, Here’s Why That’s Dangerous

One year from today, on February 5, 2021, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is scheduled to expire, leaving the United States and Russia without a single bilateral nuclear arms control agreement for the first time in nearly 50 years. This would mean the end of constraints on either country’s nuclear arsenal which, especially when combined with worsening relations between the two, could be a recipe for a new nuclear arms race. It will also end the intrusive verification measures that have provided both countries with substantial confidence in their assessments of each other’s arsenals over the past several decades.

The United States and Russia can agree to extend the treaty for another five years; it would only take an exchange of memos between their presidents. This would give the countries time to talk about a follow-on treaty that could include further reductions or cover a broader range of weapon types.

But this does not seem likely to happen. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is open to extending the treaty with no preconditions, President Trump has other ideas. He does not want to extend the treaty as-is but has said he wants a “better” deal, one that would include China as well.