International security

Sorting fact from fiction on Russian missile claims

One might think that the US government, having gone public with the allegation of non-compliance, adds some weight to the theory of a grave deliberate violation. Not necessarily. The Obama administration quite possibly would have preferred to resolve the issue quietly through diplomatic channels, but once it became known that the State Department was conducting its own internal compliance review—prior to the public release of the 2014 Compliance Report—members of Congress and others put serious pressure on the administration to confront Russia about the alleged violation. There was a clear advantage in doing so: Russia had contemplated leaving the INF Treaty in the past, but after a public accusation of non-compliance, the political cost of doing so would be much higher.