Predictions

Nate Silver’s Terrifying Prediction: Prepare for President Trump

If this year’s presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would have a 56.7 percent chance of becoming the next commander-in-chief, according to the “now-cast” predictions atFive Thirty Eight, Nate Silver’s data journalism site. Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning an election held today are just 43.3 percent. 

But don’t panic just yet, says the gay statistician. Some of Trump’s recent rise in national polls comes from what pundits call the “convention bump,” a spike in public support immediately after a candidate accepts the party’s nomination at the high-profile convention. And, of course, the general election is not being held today, but nearly four months from now, on November 8.