Climate security

Simple Math Trick Helps Scientists Predict Climate Change

Researchers at the University of Chicago and Massachusetts Institute of Technology developed a technique to accurately predict the shape and melting effects of ponds on Arctic sea ice.

The method, as described by a study published last week in the journal Physical Review Letters, should help scientists improve models of climate change.

Each winter, some of the ocean freezes into what’s known as “sea ice.” The Arctic ecosystem heavily relies on the frozen water, which can also impact global weather conditions; it reflects heat back into space, helping to regulate ocean circulation.

“But sea ice cover has been shrinking, and significantly faster than our models predict,” according to Predrag Popović, a UChicago graduate student and first author of the paper. “So we’re looking for where the discrepancy might be.”