European security

Belarus between East andWest: The Art of the Deal

During the Belarusian celebration of independence in July 2018, President Alexander Lukashenko stressed that Belarus would not choose between East and West. Belarusians would choose independence, peace and partnerships with other states. He thus reaffirmed statements he made at the Minsk Dialogue Forum in May 2018, a for Belarus unprecedentedly large conference on Eastern European security that was well-attended by Western researchers and policy advisors. Since 2014, Belarus stresses its role as a bridge builder and mediator in the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, the government is pursuing a policy of strengthening national identity. In Russia, both officials and the state-controlled media are increasingly criticizing Belarus’ lack of loyalty and its commitment to the alliance. Lukashenko is personally criticized for his perceived attempts to ingratiate himself with the West. Tensions are further exacerbated because Belarus does not recognize the “reunification” of Russia with Crimea, rejects the establishment of a Russian air base on its territory, and introduced a limited visa exemption for Western tourists. These recent developments directly contradict the prevailing image in the West to date; that Belarus is Russia’s staunchest ally. Belarus is indeed heavily dependent on Russian energy subsidies and markets, a member of all Russian-led projects for economic and military integration, and the countries have close cultural ties. It is therefore remarkable and significant for debates on European security that Belarus, neighbor to Ukraine and strategically located between Poland and Russia, has begun shifting its foreign policy priorities since 2014.