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Wednesday, November 18, 2020

International security

‘Dual containment’ on Moscow, Beijing likely to continue under Biden

Let's face it - no US-China-Russia triangle exists now. Instead, for a couple of years we observed the US policy of "dual containment" with Washington applying more and more pressure on both Beijing and Moscow. This pressure has become an important factor cementing the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership. 

This situation is a clear strategic setback for Washington. Since at least early 20th century, one of the most important goals of the US foreign policy has always been to prevent any consolidated anti-American center of power in Eurasia. US policymakers have perceived a divided Eurasian landmass as an indispensable prerequisite for the global US strategic hegemony. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger understood the critical importance of keeping Eurasia divided better than anyone else did. He was more efficient than any US leader before him in exploiting the growing rifts between Beijing and Moscow back in early 1970s.

Can President-elect Joe Biden repeat Kissinger's success and resurrect the US-China-Russia triangle with the US at the top of it? Of course, almost 50 years have passed since the famous trip of Kissinger to Beijing in July of 1971. The world today is definitely very different from the world of the 20th century. The former bedrock theology of geopolitics may look old-fashioned and even antiquated. Still, let us consider the options that the US leadership has in trying to keep Eurasia divided. 

The first option would be to read Kissinger literally, that is to support the weaker US adversary against the stronger one. Today, it would mean that Washington should try to bring Moscow to the American side in its predestined confrontation with Beijing. After all, Russia is a communist country no more, and Russian leaders should be concerned about the growing asymmetry of power between their country and China. To play the weaker adversary against the stronger one was a stated goal of the Trump administration, which it failed to achieve. The US-Russian relations did not get any better under Trump. On the contrary, they fell to historic lows.

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