Predictions

Prediction Markets vs. Pollsters and Pundits in 2016 Presidential Election

 Designing a good presidential poll can be tricky. Just ask Gallup, which missed the mark in 2012.David Kass, an economist at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business, takes a different approach. Rather than worrying about things like sample selection and response bias, he simply follows the money on prediction markets.

Odds and lines: Betting on politics is mostly illegal in the United States, but online investors (maybe “gamblers” is the better term) can trade shares on U.S. candidates in places like Ireland.