International security

…Xi’s administration has sent a clear signal to the United States: “You lead the world – I only want to lead China. If you don’t make trouble for me, I won’t cause trouble for you.” As my American friend put it, if you give me some time, I’ll give you some space. The Pacific Ocean is huge and the world is even bigger – China’s night is America’s day. If the U.S. respects China’s choices, China won’t oppose U.S. leadership.

The U.S. has always been in the driver’s seat when it comes to the U.S.-China relationship. Right now, there are some obvious variables at play in the generally stable relationship. But the greatest variable isn’t the South China Sea or the East China Sea or even the risk of an incident leading to war in Northeast Asia. The biggest variables will be the success or failure of China’s reforms, the effect of slowing growth on society, and the relationship between China’s rulers and the people.

Is China destined to eventually overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy? Or will it backslide or even crumble when trying to climb out of the pit that many other countries have already escaped? It’s obvious that time is in the hands of the Americans on the other side of the ocean.

China vs. the US: Who Blinked?