Extremism

SPECIAL ANALYSIS: Que Vadis – Where Goes Islamic Extremism?

Of all the questions Western intelligence agencies might like to ask the senior leaders of Al Qaeda and ISIS is head and shoulders above the parapet. Que Vadis, where are you going? Knowing their direction of travel, what their strategy is and what targets they intend to target and attack in the future would be so helpful. It would enable those currently planning the end game for those engaged in what can broadly be described as Islamic extremism to be more effectively targeted.

As the President’s clock to come up with a new strategy to combat Islamic extremism ticks down, building this dynamically evolving plan -- in the absence of someone being helpful and actually telling us what the  plan really is -- is like trying to second guess how it evolves from here. Nostradamus would no doubt agree that prediction is a fool’s game. But, given the serious nature of what the Western world faces, it is one that must be attempted.

The first piece of this elaborate picture that is emerging is obvious. Whereas Islamic extremism has always found an immediate sanctuary across borders to rest up and get back into the fight later, the situation in Iraq and Syria is making that difficult. While in Iraq ISIS has been conducting suicide attacks in Baghdad and using some freedom of movement that it retains in the Al Anbar Province to attack the Iraqi Army, its overall ability to continue the fight in Iraq is increasingly being squeezed.