Nuclear security

Understanding Nuclear Weapon Risks

Policy discussion of nuclear weapon risks has until now centred on the disastrous consequences of a detonation. Yet risk exists as a function both of probability and consequence. As such, efforts to prevent a nuclear catastrophe demand a more thorough understanding of the factors that can enhance the possibility of such an event. The lack of nuclear weapons use since Hiroshima and Nagasaki cannot on its own be interpreted as evidence that the likelihood of a detonation event is minimal. The complexity of interactions in the tightly coupled systems linked to the management and operation of nuclear stockpiles make accidents inevitable. While detonations have not occurred in such circumstances, the Cold War was replete with incidences of near-misses, false alarms, and accidents in and around nuclear weapons, even when we draw only from the limited information made available by nuclear-armed States. Indeed, the general secrecy surrounding weapons programmes presents a significant obstacle from a risk assessment perspective. The lack of in-depth information concerning the precise nature of nuclear risk is especially problematic in the contemporary global environment. Rising tensions involving nuclear armed and other States, lower thresholds in nuclear use driven by technological developments, growing automation in command and control and weapons systems, and new threats in terms of both actors and crises are prominent features of the current international security situation. Detailing the overall risk “picture” is a critical first step to any mitigation effort.