Elites' fear

After Trump and Brexit, All Eyes Are on Italy’s Constitutional Referendum

After Brexit and Donald Trump, will Italy be next? Prime MinisterMatteo Renzi’s Dec. 4 referendum on his proposed constitutional overhauls—designed to strengthen the power of the government by making it easier to pass laws—is the next opportunity for voters in a major economy to give the establishment another kicking.

Polls currently show the “No” vote narrowly ahead, albeit with up to a quarter of voters still to make up their minds. European policy makers have been privately warning for months that they see Italy as the biggest risk to the financial stability of the eurozone. The market is also starting to sniff trouble ahead: the spread between the yields on German and Italian government bonds has widened to more than 1.6 percentage points, the widest it has been since the European Central Bank started buying bonds in March 2015.

Elites' fear

Europe could die, French PM Manuel Valls warns in Berlin

Europe is at risk of collapse, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has stated during a trip to Berlin, warning that “Europe could die.”

Speaking at an event organized by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper during an economic forum, Valls spoke abundantly about Europe, but also of the political situation in France. Asked if, after the victory of Donald Trump in the United States, Marine Le Pen could win the next presidential in France, the PM replied “It is possible.”

“There is a danger,” he added, urging “to hear the anger of the people,” Le Parisien reported.

Elites' fear

Taking aim at the establishment: Why some of Europe's top leaders are walking dead

If you were surprised by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, you might want to brace yourself for the cartwheels of change about to roll across Europe.

Because of an unusual set of circumstances, ahead is an especially vote-heavy year with potentially heavy political casualties. Millions of people are heading to the polls, and many are in an agitated mood.

The lineup of elections and referendums is a wide-open opportunity for mass venting about the many frustrations of the past years: the migration crisis, the economic crisis, the bailouts, and fallout, in a flailing European Union.

Like Nov. 8 in the U.S. — and June 23 with Brexit — the succession of polls is also a chance to clobber the establishment.

Naturally, Europe's anti-establishment protest parties stand to reap the benefits of the discontent.

At risk are some of Europe's top leaders, now suddenly among the political walking dead.

Elites' fear

France is the next big vote to watch

Though an Italian referendum on changes to the country's constitution is right around the corner, the "risk would probably be containable" if Prime Minister Matteo Renzi loses the referendum come December, according to Schmieding and Pickering. (Although, back in August, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Business Insider the referendum could be the "cataclysmic event" similar to Brexit that could trigger the collapse of the eurozone.)

So, given that France is one of the two pillars of the eurozone along with Germany, there's an argument that what happens in that nation's upcoming presidential election, potentially featuring a showdown between a center-right former president and a far-right-wing leader, could have greater implications for the continent than what happens in Italy.

"Could Front National leader Marine Le Pen win the presidential election on 7 May 2017, possibly even trying to take France out of the EU or euro afterwards? If so, it could spell the end of Europe as we know it," wrote Schmieding and Pickering.

Elites' fear

European Temper Trumptums

Europe Holds "Panic Dinner"

"A world is collapsing before our eyes", tweeted the French ambassador to the United States, Gerard Araud, as it became clear that Donald Trump had won the US presidential election. Although he later apparently deleted the tweet, the sentiment expressed in his tweet encapsulates the attitude of the majority of the European political establishment.

Deutsche Welle (DW), Germany's international broadcaster, described the reaction to Trump's victory across Germany's political spectrum as "shock and uncertainty." Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen described Trump's win as a "heavy shock." German Justice Minister Heiko Maas tweeted: "The world won't end, but things will get more crazy".

Green party leader Cem Özdemir called Trump's election a "break with the tradition that the West stands for liberal values."

Chancellor Angela Merkel's deputy chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, said:

"Trump is the trailblazer of a new authoritarian and chauvinist international movement. ... They want a rollback to the bad old times in which women belonged by the stove or in bed, gays in jail and unions at best at the side table. And he who doesn't keep his mouth shut gets publicly bashed."