Geopolitics

Global geopolitical risk predictions for 2016

The recent multi-decade trend towards globalization is hitting up against a new trend towards localization and fragmentation this coming year, and that, combined with political and military hotspots around the globe, experts say, is likely to make international companies pay more attention to geopolitical risks in 2016/

Geopolitics

THE GEOPOLITICAL RULES YOU DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT ARE UNDER SIEGE

In the post–Cold War era, geopolitics can sometimes seem like the Wild West. But despite all appearances, an order governs there. Or rather it has. Throughout modern history, most countries have accepted a few simple rules to ward off total chaos: laws and conventions around land, sea and the air. These rules are not sexy — maritime law isn’t exactly known to quicken the pulse — but they’re as vital to the international order as a score is to an orchestra.

But now, as we approach the 25th anniversary of the Soviet collapse, one of the most worrisome trends is that the “rules” we take for granted on land and sea and in the air are for the first time since then under simultaneous challenge on three continents. The challenges come from Russia, China and a host of non-state actors in the Middle East, which collectively are breaking internationally sanctioned “rules” of normal conduct — and thus adding another element of instability to today’s very chaotic world.

Geopolitics
Quantum Geopolitics

Forecasting the shape the world will take in several years or decades is an audacious undertaking. There are no images to observe or precise data points to anchor us. We can only create a picture, and a fuzzy one at best. This is, after all, our basic human empirical instinct: to draw effortlessly from the vivid imagery of our present world and past experiences while we squint and hesitate before faint, blobby images of the future.

Geopolitics

Accounting for Inertia in Geopolitical Forecasting

Geopolitics, at least in the sense that we practice, is neither deterministic in its approach to understanding nations and their interactions nor simply synonymous with current events or international relations. At its most basic, geopolitics as a discipline seeks to explain the intersection between place and people, or more specifically between place and the nation, and the impact they have on one another. Practitioners assess geography, politics, economics, security, history and society inclusively to build a deeper understanding of nations, sub-nations, regions and the world.