Intel assessment

Declassified: Intelligence community assessment annex shows 'limited corroboration' of Steele dossier

The annex to the 2017 intelligence community assessment on Russian election interference containing allegations from British ex-spy Christopher Steele’s dossier was declassified Thursday, revealing the U.S. government claimed to have “only limited corroboration” of the former MI6 agent’s claims.

The two-page annex, appended to the January 2017 conclusion by the FBI, CIA, and National Security Agency that the Kremlin interfered in the 2016 election to help then-candidate Donald Trump and hurt Hillary Clinton, was declassified by Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and obtained by the Washington Examiner. Both fired FBI Director James Comey and fired Deputy Director Andrew McCabe had unsuccessfully pushed to include Steele's unverified research in the official public assessment, according to a Justice Department watchdog report.

“An FBI source using both identified and unidentified sub sources volunteered highly politically sensitive information from the summer to the full of 2016 on Russian influence efforts aimed at the U.S. presidential election,” the annex stated. “We have only limited corroboration of the source’s reporting in this case and did not use it to reach the analytic conclusions of the CIA/FBI/NSA assessment.”

Intel assessment

UK spy agencies urge China rethink once Covid-19 crisis is over

Britain’s intelligence community believes the UK needs to reassess its relationship with China after the coronavirus crisis subsides and consider if tighter controls are needed over high-tech and other strategic industries.

They reckon China will become more assertive in defending its one-party model as having successfully tackled the pandemic and that Boris Johnson and other ministers will have to take a “realistic view” and consider how the UK responds.

Issues being aired are whether the UK wants to restrict takeovers of key companies in high-tech areas such as digital communications and artificial intelligence, and whether it should reduce Chinese students’ access to research at universities and elsewhere.

But MI6, the foreign intelligence service, and MI5, its domestic equivalent, still believe it was correct to allow Huawei access to Britain’s 5G network, capped at 35% – a decision made by Johnson in January – although the new emphasis on China may make that decision increasingly hard to defend as Conservative rebels press for a rethink.

Intel assessment

Vladimir Putin’s so-called missile with unlimited range is too expensive for the Kremlin – and has yet to fly farther than 22 miles

Russia’s cruise missile Burevestnik, referred to as “Skyfall” in American intelligence reports, was tested once earlier this year. Prior to that, the weapon was tested four times between November and February in 2018, each resulting in a crash, according to sources who spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity.

The U.S. assessed that the longest test flight lasted just more than two minutes, with the missile flying 22 miles before losing control and crashing. The shortest test lasted four seconds and flew for five miles. The tests showed that the nuclear-powered heart of the cruise missile failed to initiate and, therefore, the weapon was unable to achieve the indefinite flight Putin had boasted about.

The weapon, which has been in development since the early 2000s, is believed to use a gasoline-powered engine for takeoff before switching to a nuclear-powered one for flight, sources explained.

Intel assessment

Estonian intelligence flags Russian civilian vessels as would-be spy ships

Russian civilian vessels may be employed by Moscow to spy on critical military infrastructure of NATO members, according to a new report by the Estonian intelligence service.

The annual assessment paints a picture of Russia ready to risk a large-scale war with NATO when any of its immediate neighbors, especially Belarus, are seen as getting too cozy with the West. According to the analysis, the Kremlin is equally jumpy when it comes to the Baltic states, considering the former Soviet-bloc countries as legitimate NATO targets in the event of an actual war.

“Even though the likelihood of a worst-case scenario is slim, surprises arranged by its authoritarian regime cannot be excluded,” the report states.

The Estonian intelligence assessment asserts that Russian civilian vessels are widely used as fronts for national-security missions. For example, it cites cases when Russian research ships have been observed to be especially curious to explore areas where alliance military drills are held.

Intel assessment

How U.S. Intelligence Agencies Underestimated North Korea

At the start of Donald Trump’s presidency, American intelligence agencies told the new administration that while North Korea had built the bomb, there was still ample time — upward of four years — to slow or stop its development of a missile capable of hitting an American city with a nuclear warhead.

The North’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, faced a range of troubles, they assured the new administration, giving Mr. Trump time to explore negotiations or pursue countermeasures. One official who participated in the early policy reviews said estimates suggested Mr. Kim would be unable to strike the continental United States until 2020, perhaps even 2022.

Mr. Kim tested eight intermediate-range missiles in 2016, but seven blew up on the pad or shattered in flight — which some officials attributed partly to an American sabotage program accelerated by President Barack Obama. And while the North had carried out five underground atomic tests, the intelligence community estimated that it remained years away from developing a more powerful type of weapon known as a hydrogen bomb.

Within months, those comforting assessments looked wildly out of date.

Intel assessment

MI5, MI6, and GCHQ all said they don't take Donald Trump's campaign pledges seriously

Britain's security agencies all separately said that they don't expect Donald Trump to fulfil pledges he made during his presidential campaign.

MI5, MI6, and GCHQ — who deal with intelligence, foreign intelligence, and surveillance, respectively —  have all gone on the record to say they doubt that the US president will deliver on promises he made in 2016.

The pledges they have publicly doubted include foreign policy decisions related to Russia and Iran, and his intention on using torture to extract intelligence.

The positions were revealed in statements to the UK parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee, which published an annual report on Wednesday.

Intel assessment

The Simple Reason Why Russia's Military Is Back

The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency has released a new assessment of Russian military power—reviving a Cold War-era practice. The agency concludes that the modern Russian military [4] builds upon its Soviet heritage but has modernized its capabilities and doctrine for the present day.

“The Russian military has built on the military doctrine, structure, and capabilities of the former Soviet Union, and although still dependent on many of the older Soviet platforms, the Russians have modernized their military strategy, doctrine, and tactics to include use of asymmetric weapons like cyber and indirect action such as was observed in Ukraine,” the DIA report states [5].

In the years since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian military atrophied into a pale shadow of its once mighty Soviet forbearer. While the Soviet Union renounced the first use of nuclear weapons, the new Russia relied upon those weapons [7] to offset its conventional weakness. However, Russia is trying to reduce its reliance on nuclear weapons as it rebuilds its conventional forces and adopts modern precision-guided munitions.

Intel assessment

More indications Intel assessment of Russian interference in election was rigged

Although the news media is certain to play up a new Senate Intelligence Committee subpoena of Michael Flynn for documents on his business dealings with Russia as a major new development in the congressional investigations of possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, there is a far more important story that surfaced this week that no one is talking about: a mysterious hand-picked group of analysts chosen to write a damning intelligence assessment that found Russia intervened in the election to help Trump win.

On January 6, 2017, the U.S. Intelligence Community issued an “Intelligence Community Assessment” (ISA) that found Russia deliberately interfered in the 2016 presidential election to benefit Trump’s candidacy. The news media and Trump critics have claimed this assessment ended the debate on this issue because it was the unanimous and objective conclusion of “all 17” U.S. Intelligence Agencies.

Intel assessment

Exclusive: Top U.S. spy agency has not embraced CIA assessment on Russia hacking - sources

The overseers of the U.S. intelligence community have not embraced a CIA assessment that Russian cyber attacks were aimed at helping Republican President-elect Donald Trump win the 2016 election, three American officials said on Monday.

While the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) does not dispute the CIA's analysis of Russian hacking operations, it has not endorsed their assessment because of a lack of conclusive evidence that Moscow intended to boost Trump over Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, said the officials, who declined to be named.

The position of the ODNI, which oversees the 17 agency-strong U.S. intelligence community, could give Trump fresh ammunition to dispute the CIA assessment, which he rejected as "ridiculous" in weekend remarks, and press his assertion that no evidence implicates Russia in the cyber attacks.

Intel assessment

US Intelligence Assessments Fully Corrupted by Wish to Please Boss

US Central Command (CENTCOM) is investigating a US House of Representatives Joint Task Force report that alleges the command manipulated intelligence on the fight against the Daesh terrorist group, CENTCOM spokesperson Kyle Raines told Sputnik on August 11.

"The entire government structure in the United States has been completely corrupted, over time but especially during the Obama administration," Armstrong, a specialist on the Soviet Union and Russia who previously served as political counsellor in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow, said on Wednesday.

The investigation has aroused concern among senior US political figures. Last week, US Senator Kelly Ayotte said that CENTCOM officials must be held accountable for manipulating intelligence about the coalition’s efforts to defeat and destroy the Islamic State.

Intel assessment

A reality check on the Middle East from America’s spy chief

America’s top spymaster offered contrarian assessments of some key issues: warning against “hyping” the threat posed by the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate (terrorist group) Jabhat al-Nusra, cautioning against Obama administration plans to share intelligence with Russia on Syrian targets and questioning Turkish claims that last Friday’s coup attempt was organized by a cleric living in the United States.

National Intelligence Director James Clapper made the characteristically blunt comments in an interview Wednesday. He expanded on a warning he made in an interview in May that the United States can’t by itself “fix” the problems of the turbulent Middle East. Clapper’s skeptical view is shared by President Obama and has reinforced the administration’s wariness about committing military force in Syria.

Intel assessment

U.S. officials: Russian airstrikes have changed ‘calculus completely’ in Syria

Russian military intervention in Syria has turned the course of that country’s civil war against U.S.-backed rebel groups, increasing the likelihood that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his loyalists will remain in power, U.S. intelligence officials testified Tuesday.

The assessment amounts to an acknowledgment by U.S. spy agencies that Russian airstrikes have derailed the Obama administration’s aims of pushing Assad aside as part of a political settlement to the nearly five-year old conflict.

“The Russian reinforcement has changed the calculus completely,” Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in Senate testimony. Assad is “in a much stronger negotiating position than he was just six months ago,” Stewart said. “I’m more inclined to believe that he is a player on the stage longer term than he was six months to a year ago.”

Intel assessment

Obama to Pentagon: 'Get to the bottom' of altered Islamic State intelligence

President Obama said Sunday he has told top military officials to "get to the bottom" of reports that intelligence assessments have been altered to give a rosier assessment of progress in turning back the Islamic State.

Obama was responding to a report in The New York Times that the Pentagon's inspector general has expanded its probe of intelligence reports from Central Command, or CENTCOM, and that congressional committees were seeking answers about whether that intelligence had been shaded to make it appear more progress is being made. The Times reported that the Pentagon has added more investigators who have seized documents related to intelligence reports.