Predictions

Coronavirus: who will be winners and losers in new world order?

Many are already claiming that the east has won this war of competing narratives. The South Korean philosopher Byung-Chul Han, in an influential essay in El País, has argued the victors are the “Asian states like Japan, Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan or Singapore that have an authoritarian mentality which comes from their cultural tradition [of] Confucianism. People are less rebellious and more obedient than in Europe. They trust the state more. Daily life is much more organised. Above all, to confront the virus Asians are strongly committed to digital surveillance. The epidemics in Asia are fought not only by virologists and epidemiologists, but also computer scientists and big data specialists.”

He predicts: “China will now be able to sell its digital police state as a model of success against the pandemic. China will display the superiority of its system even more proudly.” He claims western voters, attracted to safety and community, might be willing to sacrifice those liberties. There is little liberty in being forced to spend spring shut in your own flat.

Predictions

What U.S. Intelligence Thought 2020 Would Look Like

In 2004, Mark Zuckerberg launched Facebook. George W. Bush was reelected president of the United States. And American intelligence analysts consulted with hundreds of experts across five continents to try to predict what the world would look like in 2020.

The result, a 119-page report by the National Intelligence Council titled “Mapping the Global Future,” is an eerie and illuminating read with 2020 now upon us. The authors, led by Mathew Burrows, then a top official at the council, sensed that the world was approaching an inflection point, even if they didn’t yet know what role the United States would play in it. “At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux,” they wrote.

As with most expert predictions, the intelligence officials got plenty wrong about our present era. But they got a lot at least partially right, an indication that not everything about the world today is as unpredictable as it might seem. While the analysts at the National Intelligence Council may not have seen President Donald Trump coming 15 years ago, they anticipated Trumpism. They didn’t expect the United States to voluntarily reduce its presence in the world, but they grasped that its clout was eroding. They missed the Islamic State, but foresaw the conditions in which ISIS arose.

Predictions

20 predictions for 2020: Here's what people thought would happen by this year

Decades ago, academics, futurists and government agencies cast their predictions of what would happen by the year 2020. Will submarines reach historic depths? Who will lead future nations, and which ones will be global superpowers? Will Planet Earth even exist as we known it?

"I shall not be surprised if on my 92nd birthday I am able to go for a ride in an antigravity car," mathematician and scientist D.G. Brennan wrote in 1968.

Some, like Brennan, were overly optimistic. Others were spot-on. Here's what happened, what didn't and what was just plain crazy.

1. Life expectancy will rise to over 100

Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted in 1999 that human life expectancy would rise to "over one hundred" by 2019.

"Computerized health monitors built into watches, jewelry, and clothing which diagnose both acute and chronic health conditions are widely used. In addition to diagnosis, these monitors provide a range of remedial recommendations and interventions," he wrote in "The Age of Spiritual Machines."

Predictions

A Dozen Innovation Predictions For The Coming Decade

During the month of December, it’s fashionable for pundits to make predictions for the coming year; as a venture investor, I feel pressure to look further out. Venture capital provides a unique perspective on the future, because the plans of early stage startups illustrate a roadmap for how technology trends and markets might unfold. The earliest stage companies can lag the market by five to seven years or more, giving potential glimpses of what may happen down the road.

Given my “perch” as a VC and the fact that we are entering a decade some are hoping will resemble the roaring 20s of the last century, I thought I would share my personal (and obviously very subjective) innovation forecast for the next ten years:

There will be more customization of everything

If you think we have too many choices now, just wait.

I recently met with an entrepreneur working on a technology to help consumers select TV shows based on mood instead of genre...

Predictions

The Secret Ingredients of ‘Superforecasting’

That was the inescapable conclusion drawn from the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a forecasting tournament launched by Wharton professors Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. From 2011 to 2015, the US government-funded online initiative pitted the predictive powers of ordinary people against Washington, DC intelligence analysts on the most significant geopolitical questions of the day. Over successive rounds, Tetlock and Mellers identified the very best prognosticators from the 25,000-strong participant pool and shunted them into elite teams. Despite the fact that the Beltway experts had access to classified data and intelligence reports, the GJP superforecaster squads bested them in predictive accuracy by about 30 percent.

But there was more to the GJP’s success than merely identifying and grouping superforecasters. Along the way, Tetlock and Mellers developed three interventions – training, teaming and tracking – that improved prediction quality for superforecasters and average folks alike. This feature of the GJP may be the most appealing for companies, as even a modest increase in the overall accuracy of a firm’s predictions could unlock tremendous value.

Training refers specifically to probabilistic reasoning tutorials, which convey tools and techniques for testing assumptions, spotting relevant patterns in past data, avoiding common errors in judgment, etc. Teaming, as you might expect, involved grouping individuals together so they could share information and challenge each other prior to making a prediction. Tracking was the practice, mentioned above, of separating the highest performers into elite squads of superforecasters.

Predictions

J. C. Cole: American Gray Swans – Week 38 – A Quick Review

As many now know the Gray Swans are an adaptation of Nassim Taleb’s famous theory on a Black Swan Event. A Black Swan is an unpredictable event that is catastrophic – a game changer. Most famous was 911.(???) The world changed that day and virtually none of us had a plan for it.

A Gray Swan is a predictable event that is catastrophic. Unfortunately there is some quirk in human psychology that seems to ignore the inevitable. Catastrophes that are predictable yet we do not do anything about planning for them? Let us sit like ignorant “sitting ducks” and wait for a Gray Swan to land.

The truth is America is simply positioned for collapse and a famine. Whether it is done deliberately or by accident is moot at this point. A Gray Swan can be triggered by our enemies, by Mother Nature, or just by accident. Keep in mind that historically, the #1 reason for revolution in the world is famine. Just ask the Chinese who are buying up our prime farm land.

In America’s present positioning there are at least 13 events that if just one happened would be catastrophic for us. Some of these events are guaranteed to happen, yet we do not know when. All will cause our sophisticated “Just in Time” (JIT) Delivery system to collapse, and thus stop food from being delivered to the vast majority of America. This is not rocket science, but rather direct “Cause and Effect”. We would have 2 weeks to fix the issue before the majority of American families run out of food.

Predictions

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not. One study compiled a decade of annual dollar-to-euro exchange-rate predictions made by 22 international banks: Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and others. Each year, every bank predicted the end-of-year exchange rate. The banks missed every single change of direction in the exchange rate. In six of the 10 years, the true exchange rate fell outside the entire range of all 22 bank forecasts.

In 2005, tetlock published his results, and they caught the attention of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, a government organization that supports research on the U.S. intelligence community’s most difficult challenges. In 2011, IARPA launched a four-year prediction tournament in which five researcher-led teams competed. Each team could recruit, train, and experiment however it saw fit. Predictions were due at 9 a.m. every day. The questions were hard: Will a European Union member withdraw by a target date? Will the Nikkei close above 9,500?

Predictions

Seven ways technology will change in 2019

1 Silicon Valley’s cold war with the EU heats up

At the beginning of 2019, as at the start of 2018, Margrethe Vestager remains the most powerful woman in tech. The EU competition commissioner has the world’s biggest companies walking on tiptoe, afraid of her habit of enforcing competition law where the US authorities have refused to do so.

In 2018, Google was the subject of Vestager’s cold gaze, receiving multibillion fines for its anti-competitive practices around its Android operating system, its shopping service and Chrome browser. But in 2019, it’s likely to be someone else’s turn. The only question is who.

In the US, Amazon has been the odds-on favourite, thanks to a combination of a hostile president, a direct negative effect on commercial competitors and the rise of the doctrine of “hipster antitrust” (broadly arguing that monopolies can be harmful even if consumer welfare appears to be boosted). But in the EU, with a greater focus on privacy and data protection issues, Facebook looks vulnerable...

Predictions
OPINION

7 Tech Predictions for 2019

Though it’s a year shy of the big decade marker, 2019 looks to be one of the most exciting and most important years for the tech industry in some time. Thanks to the upcoming launch of some critical new technologies, including 5G and foldable displays, as well as critical enhancements in on-device AI, personal robotics, and other exciting areas, there’s a palpable sense of expectation for the new year that we haven’t felt for a while.

Plus, 2018 ended up being a pretty tough year for several big tech companies, so there are also a lot of folks who want to shake the old year off and dive headfirst into an exciting future. With that spirit in mind, here’s my take on some of what I expect to be the biggest trends and most important developments in 2019.

Prediction 1: Foldable Phones Will Outsell 5G Phones

At this point, everyone knows that 2019 will see the “official” debut of two very exciting technological developments in the mobile world: foldable displays and smartphones equipped with 5G modems. Several vendors and carriers have already announced these devices, so now it’s just a question of when and how many.

Not everyone realizes, however, that the two technologies won’t necessarily come hand-in-hand this year: we will see 5G-enabled phones and we will see smartphones with foldable displays. As of yet, it’s not clear that we’ll see devices that incorporate both capabilities in calendar year 2019. 

Predictions

5 Big National Security Predictions for 2019

Winston Churchill once wisecracked that the politician’s job is to predict what will happen—then explain why it didn’t. More to the point, George Orwell mocked “the unsinkable Military Expert” who keeps venturing strong predictions about martial affairs, keeps getting forecasts wrong, and keeps drawing “fat salaries” despite repeated failures as a soothsayer. Be humble when prophesying—lest the ghosts of wars past appear before you and terrify you!

In that spirit of humility, my Five National Security Predictions for 2019:

1. China keeps pushing its bounds:

China has a dream, as President Xi Jinping likes to say. More accurately, the Chinese Communist Party has a dream that it has thrust on the Chinese people. Party potentates will continue pushing toward that dream along parallel diplomatic, economic, and military tracks. Beijing has found footholds throughout the Indo-Pacific region through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI supplies regional governments with funds for infrastructure development in hopes of resurrecting the maritime and landward Silk Roads of old. Naval bases could follow, playing host to Beijing’s many surface and subsurface warships...

Predictions

3 Predictions for Government Tech in 2018

May I be the first to wish you a Happy New Year? For me anyway, 2017 seemed to fly by in the blink of an eye. I almost can’t believe it’s late December and we are about to put this one into the books. The pending start of a new year means that it’s prediction season once again, where pundits and columnists make their calls about what they expect to see in the coming year. And unlike most others, I actually go back over my work and fact check everything at the end of each year, so I need to be careful with my predictions. Thankfully, I got more right than wrong in 2017, although the ratio was closer than I would have liked.

Past performance aside, I’m feeling pretty good about my 2018 predictions for technology and government.

Prediction 1: Blockchain Beefs Up Government Cybersecurity

Originally created in 2009 to secure the emerging Bitcoin cryptocurrency, blockchain has lately been examined as a possible way to secure transactions, documents and messaging for a variety of applications in many sectors. Now the government is doing its own experiments in this area. Part of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2018, signed earlier this month by President Donald Trump, directs the Defense Department to conduct a comprehensive study of blockchain technology to find out where it can be successfully deployed in government...

Predictions

New Crime Prediction System

A new crime prediction technology has been creating controversy. Brett Goldstein, an ex-cop, founded CivicScape, a technology company that sells crime-predicting software to police departments. Nine cities are either using the software or in the process of implementing it, including four of the US’s 35 largest cities by population. Departments pay between $30,000 a year to use the software in cities with less than 100,000 people to $155,000 a year in cities with populations that exceed 1 million. Goldstein wanted to check in on the two clients who were furthest along—the police departments in the New Jersey towns of Camden and Linden.

The criminal justice system produces reams of data, and new computing methods offer to turn any pool of numbers into something useful. Today, almost every major police department is using or has used some form of commercial software that makes predictions about crime, either to determine what blocks warrant heightened police presence or even which people are most likely to be involved. Technology is transforming the craft of policing.

Predictions

Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?

Analysts and intelligence officials periodically get together to anticipate what tomorrow's terrorists might do.

Will terrorists threaten mass destruction with nuclear weapons or global pandemics with designer pathogens? Will cities be contaminated with dirty bombs? Will tech-savvy terrorists remotely sabotage power grids or other vital infrastructure via the internet?

Are terrorists capable of triggering electromagnetic pulses that fry electronics, reducing modern technology-dependent society to a Mad Max movie? Will they shoot down airliners with hand-held missiles or bring them down with miniaturized bombs concealed in laptops or perhaps surgically implanted? Will they attack crowds in stadiums with drones carrying hand grenades or anthrax or merely white powder to provoke deadly panics?

Or might there be a mass uprising of individual fanatics ramming trucks into pedestrians, attacking diners with machetes, and carrying out other primitive, but nearly-impossible-to-prevent attacks?

Predictions

Freedom’s ride: U.S. intelligence never saw the uprisings of the Arab Spring coming

On December 13, 2010, one of those firms convened a meeting of intelligence analysts and nongovernment experts to explore future po­litical trends in the Middle East. Drawn from the outside were three or four faculty members from universities along the Northeast Corridor and an equal number of “think tankers” — typically people with aca­demic training who have chosen not to enter the ranks of academia as well as former government officials many of whom also have advanced degrees in history, political science or economics. The American intel­ligence community is often slandered in the press and among the tele­vision punditocracy for missing major events and developments. No doubt it has had its spectacular failures — the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Tet Offensive, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, to name some of the most notorious — but the intelligence community’s record is better than many might suggest. Policymakers have a penchant for publicly flogging it to mask their misjudgments. There was the blame shifting after the September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington.

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Energy BOOKSHELF: Powerful CliFi from a leading American national security expert

Millions of lives lost to catastrophes – natural and man-made – could have been saved by the advance warnings of experts. Can we find those prescient people before the next catastrophe strikes? ...

In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many others. Like her, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are true?

This is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilization.

Predictions

Scientist who predicted Donald Trump's election victory says Marine Le Pen is 'VERY LIKELY' to win French presidential vote 

The scientist who predicted Donald Trump's US election victory has claimed far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could win the French election because of voter abstention.

French physicist Serge Galam has said the National Front leader could benefit from her hard-core following who will ensure they turn out to back her. 

By contrast, a substantial number of people who said they would vote for her rival may not actually go to the polls, he claimed.

Predictions

Will It Be a Happy New Year? Global Predictions for 2017

As 2016 comes to an end, many pundits have spelled out the challenges that the next president of the United States will face in 2017 and beyond. Though the U.S. remains the center of the world politically, economically and militarily, there are many long-term shifts that will fundamentally challenge Washington’s ability to influence events globally.

While the U.S. remains the most powerful nation on the planet, its ability to influence global events will wane next year, as political and economic discord beyond North America consume governments in nationalist fury. This change has long been coming as the post-Cold War era began unraveling in the 2008 economic crisis, although it is often chalked up to the current rising tide of populism.

The changes taking place around the globe are not confined to any single cause. Instead, there are a number of influences at work.

Predictions

US Elections 2016: Animals Choose Trump Over Clinton

From various polls and different models and predictive simulations, the 2016 U.S. election has been one of the most important highlights awaited for not just by the Americans but the whole world. We've seen enough of the surveys telling who might win,but now can psychic animals tip the lead?

In an article from Huffington Post, a compilation of results from different psychic animals across the globe have been documented, asking whether whom among the two U.S. presidential candidates will win the Tuesday elections. According to the animals' pulse, it's definitely Donald Trump.

Predictions

Welp, God Just Cast His Vote. The Election Is Over.

Okay, everyone can go home now. Time to wrap this election up. The Almighty has cast his vote for president, and the forecast is grim: cloudy with a chance of Trump.

Do you see it? The sweeping wisps of hair, the angular nose, the smug mouth, the soft chin (weak!).

The undeniable likeness of presidential candidate Donald Trump was spotted in the skies over Chicago on August 15, and we humans carried on like this wasn't a sign from God himself that Donald J. Trump will certainly be the next president of the United States.

The image was originally posted by Fox 32 Chicago and then tweeted out by Trump's executive vice president, Michael Cohen (of "Says who?" fame), late Saturday night.

Predictions

App maker: Trump will win election

Despite a majority of opinion polls showing the 2016 presidential election going to Democrat Hillary Clinton, a smartphone app developer says his data suggests challenger Donald Trump will be the victor.

“Based on the stats we see, he looks strong,” says Ric Militi, co-founder of San Diego-based Crazy Raccoons, maker of the Zip question and answer app. His app poses questions and polls responses based on an average of 100,000 daily users. “I go with Trump, based on what we see.”

The results don’t read like any poll you’ve seen reported in the last weeks, but instead like they have been answered primarily by the most ardent Trump supporters.

Some Zip questions:

— ”New polls suggest Trump is getting crushed by Clinton. Do they reflect how you are going to vote?” Some 64% told Zip they would vote for Trump, compared to 36% for Clinton. In the latestReuters/Ipsos poll, Clinton leads Trump, 42% to 36%.

— ”California, who you voting for?” Trump got 55%, compared to 45% for Clinton. In the latest Public Policy Institute of California poll, Clinton has a 16-point advantage over Trump, 46% to 30%...