Demographic security

Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born

The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers.

Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.

And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.

Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.

What is going on?

The fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - is falling.

If the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall.

In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.

Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 - and their study, published in the Lancet, projects it will fall below 1.7 by 2100.

Demographic security

Ukraine’s Quiet Depopulation Crisis

Ukraine’s president wanders the deserted streets of the capital, Kyiv, feasting in vacated supermarkets and ringing the bells of Saint Michael’s Monastery, in the forlorn hope of reaching someone left to hear them. Elsewhere, a few souls can still be found: A pro-Russian fighter stalks empty buildings in the country’s east; a supermodel wins contest after contest in which she is the only competitor; an itinerant oligarch hammers signs into the ground to “claim” abandoned territory.

The scenes are fictitious—the first from a 2017 episode of a comedy series starring the man who is now Ukraine’s actual president; the others from a 2018 mockumentary—yet they testify to a growing unease in the country over its declining population. This worry pervades much of Ukraine’s immediate region: In a United Nations study, the top 10 countries ranked by their projected population decline over the next 30 years are all in post-socialist Eastern Europe, an area characterized by low birth rates, small numbers of immigrants, and large numbers of departing citizens.

Ukraine nevertheless stands apart. It is still a nation at war, yet in a survey last year, 55 percent of residents named mass emigration as the greatest threat to their country—the UN estimates that Ukraine could lose nearly a fifth of its population by 2050. 

Demographic security

Here are the fastest growing and shrinking counties in America

The Census Bureau recently released its annual estimates for how the populations of each of the 3,142 counties and county-equivalents in the US changed in the year between July 1, 2017 and July 1, 2018. The above map shows the percent change in population over that year in each county, with counties in blue having growing populations and counties in red seeing declines over the year. Some of the big winners are large metropolitan areas in the south and west. The rings of counties around Texas' big cities of Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio show up in dark blue, and most of Florida's counties saw strong growth over the year. Several counties in the northeast and Midwest saw more moderate growth or population decline over the year. Notably, the boroughs of New York City other than Staten Island all saw modest declines in population. Other places with big population declines included several counties along the southern banks of the Mississippi river.

Demographic security

COMMENTARY: Demographic time bomb could hit America

In 2017, the United States saw the fewest babies born in 30 years, a stat that produced a lot of hand-wringing.

But it turns out things could be worse -- a lot worse. We could be Japan, whose unfolding demographic crisis provides some lessons for where America might be headed.

According to a new report from the Japanese government, Japanese women had 921,000 babies in 2018. That’s the fewest births since comparable records began in 1899 -- when the country’s population was a third its current size.

Meanwhile, deaths in Japan hit their highest level in nearly a century. Put together, that means the country’s population is shrinking rapidly, experiencing its largest natural decline on record.

Why does this matter? Well, it’s hard for an economy to grow with fewer workers. And as more people age out of the workforce, a swelling number of retirees must depend on a shrinking number of working people to power the economy. The tax base required to fund public services for those retirees -- including health care and elder care -- also shrinks.

The reasons for Japan’s baby bust are multifold. Some are specific to Japanese culture. Others bode ill for countries such as ours.

One factor is that Japan has actually been aging for a long time, and the share of childbearing-age women in the population has been shrinking. But even within that group of childbearing-age women, fertility rates are still low.

Demographic security

Don’t Worry About Fertility Falling Because Immigration and A.I. Will Replace the Unborn, Says Academic

An academic has hailed mass migration and the coming artificial intelligence revolution as reasons not to fear plummeting fertility rates in Western countries, wherein most it has long stood below replacement rate.

Oxford University academic Sarah Harper’s views that falling fertility should be a “cause for celebration” were profiled by British left-wing newspaper The Guardian, which reported that changes in society meant Western countries no longer had to worry about growing or even sustaining their populations.

The former Royal Institution director said nations wishing to sustain themselves was “really old thinking”, and praised German Chancellor Angela Merkel as a world leader who had found a way to grow their country without having to resort to citizens having their own children.

...While Harper’s views are widely accepted in many Western nations — including in the UK where the continued rise in population is mostly down to immigration — some European nations are rejecting the notion that mass migration can be the answer to all problems.

Demographic security

China’s Struggle With Demographic Change

China’s rapid aging process is not only changing the makeup of society, but it is also dramatically impacting China’s future economic growth prospects and putting huge pressure on government finances.

In 1987, the early days of China’s economic miracle, 63.8 percent of the population were of working age, and 4.2 percent were aged above 65. That meant a surplus of workers to feed China’s low-cost manufacturing boom, which drove the average 10 percent GDP growth seen between 1987 and 2007.

But increased life expectancy and lower fertility means that by 2025, when the share of the 65-and-over population exceeds 14 percent China will officially become an “aged” society. But unlike France, which took 115 years for its share to rise from 7 percent to 14 percent, China will have taken 23 years, and much less than in the United States (60 years), United Kingdom (45 years), and Germany (40 years), according to research by the World Bank and Standard Chartered.

For the economy, this process will principally impact the labor market by reducing the supply of labor, with the work force expected to shrink from 911 million in 2015, to 848.9 million in 2020, and to 781.8 million in 2030, according to Deutsche Bank estimates.
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Demographic security

Germany's Muslim Demographic Future

Germany will need to take in 300,000 migrants annually for the next 40 years to stop population decline, according to a leaked government report.

The document, parts of which were published by the Rheinische Post on February 1, reveals that the German government is counting on permanent mass migration — presumably from Africa, Asia and the Middle East — to keep the current size of the German population (82.8 million) stable through 2060.

The report implies that Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to allow into the country some 1.5 million mostly Muslim migrants between 2015 and 2016 was not primarily a humanitarian gesture, but a calculated effort to stave off Germany's demographic decline and to preserve the future viability of the German welfare state.

Demographic security

Lithuanian Authorities Blame Russia for Demographic Collapse

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many of its newly independent republics faced a period of demographic crisis; the Baltic states were hit particularly hard. Lithuania, which had a population of 3.7 million in 1991, saw its population drop to 2.85 million in 2015, a loss of nearly 23%. Neighboring Latvia, which had a population of 2.65 million in 1991, dropped to 1.95 million (a 26.5% decline). Estonia, the smallest among the Baltic countries, fared slightly better, its population of 1.56 million in 1991 dropping to 1.3 million, a 17% drop.

All three Baltic states show negative natural population growth in eleven months of 2016

Natural population growth was negative in all three Baltic states in the first eleven months of 2016, according to the information compiled by the Latvian Central Statistical Bureau.

There were 20,140 births and 25,961 deaths registered in Latvia in January-November last year. In Lithuania, 28,947 babies were born and 37,669 people died during the eleven-month period in 2016. Negative changes in Estonia’s population were less prominent than in other Baltic states with 12,935 births and 13,995 deaths registered during the first eleven months of 2016.

In January-November 2016, the birth rate in Latvia has dropped slightly compared to the eleven-month period in 2015 while birth rates in Lithuania and Estonia improved a little. The death rates decreased slightly in all three Baltic states in the first eleven months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015.

Demographic security

Boom or Bump? Germany Sees Birthrate Growth After 'Unmanageable' Immigration

On December 15, it was announced Germany is experiencing its highest birthrate in decades. An eminent German demographic researcher has told Sputnik this is largely attributable to migrants - but given current national controversy over immigration, is Germany's baby boom sustainable?

In all, in 2015 Germany's birthrate rose to 1.5 per woman, a 33-year peak. Destatis, the federal statistics office of Germany, state the increase is due to foreign-born mothers, who accounted for a record 1 in 5 births. German-born mothers have an average of 1.4 kids, while for foreign-born women, that figure is over 1.9.

Demographic security

China's population will be down to half by the end of this century?

What scholar Zheng Zhenzhen of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said at the 2016World Economic Forum has stirred a heated discussion about the Chinese population.According to Zheng, China’s population will reduce to 1 billion by the end of this century,just like the volume it had reached by 1980.

However, some experts think a 1 billion population is still a number too optimistic,considering the overestimate of fertility rates, they point out that the Chinese populationmay possibly reach 600 million by 2100.

A demography scholar Huang Wenzhen from the University of Wisconsin considers it isimpossible that China could still have a 1 billion population by the end of the century. Evenassuming with a total open birth policy, the birth rate can be 20 percent higher than theone during 2010 to 2015, and the average life expectancy also keeps increasing, Huangestimated the total population of China in 2100 would be 580 million, and decrease to 280million by 2150.

Demographic security

Palestinian population to exceed Jewish population by 2020

Figures released by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics on Thursday suggested that Palestinians will outnumber Israeli Jews in historic Palestine by 2020.

The results of the Palestinian census were released as 2015 came to a close in the center’s annual analysis of demographics in the area.

The census estimated that by the end of 2015, the total number of Palestinians in "historical Palestine" -- meaning the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip, and Israel -- was around 6.22 million, compared to 6.32 million Jews.

Demographic security
The Islamization of Britain in 2015
Sex Crimes, Jihadimania and "Protection Tax"

The Muslim population of Britain surpassed 3.5 million in 2015 to become around 5.5% of the overall population of 64 million, according to figures extrapolated from a recent study on the growth of the Muslim population in Europe. In real terms, Britain has the third-largest Muslim population in the European Union, after France, then Germany.

Islam and Islam-related issues were omnipresent in Britain during 2015, and can be categorized into five broad themes: 1) Islamic extremism and the security implications of British jihadists in Syria and Iraq; 2) the continuing spread of Islamic Sharia law in Britain; 3) the sexual exploitation of British children by Muslim gangs; 4) Muslim integration into British society; and 5) the failures of British multiculturalism.

Demographic security

Modern Immigration Wave Brings 59 Million to U.S., Driving Population Growth and Change Through 2065

Fifty years after passage of the landmark law that rewrote U.S. immigration policy, nearly 59 million immigrants have arrived in the United States, pushing the country’s foreign-born share to a near record 14%. For the past half-century, these modern-era immigrants and their descendants have accounted for just over half the nation’s population growth and have reshaped its racial and ethnic composition.

Demographic security

China lifts one-child policy amid worries over graying population

China said it would abandon its controversial “one-child policy” on Thursday and allow all couples to have two children, effectively ending the biggest population control experiment in history amid growing pressures from a rapidly aging population.The move, which came after a meeting of the Communist Party leadership, reflected concerns over potential labor shortages and rising numbers of elderly people that would put immense strains on the economy in the years ahead.

Demographic security

Where Europe Shrinks, and Where it Grows

Europe's population is ageing fast, and its younger generations are increasingly mobile. Both factors combine to explain the very uneven pattern on this map, showing in which regions the population is shrinking (blue), and where it is increasing (red). Quite often, the areas filling up and emptying out are right next to each other. 

It's the first time an analysis of Europe's population growth and decline has been mapped to such an extent (across 43 countries) and in such detail (at municipal level). The data used spans the first decade of the century.