Japan and the ‘Counter-Pivot’
The U.S. pivot (or rebalance)
towards Asia is America’s “I’m back” moment and a warning to China (to
paraphrase The Terminator’s “I’ll be back” message). For
Japanese who fear Chinese expansionism it is a welcome development.
But there is now a risk of
a counter-pivot. A full-scale war with Russia is unlikely. But the invasion of Ukraine,
combined with European disunity, vacillation, and weakness, ensures that
Washington will focus more on NATO’s eastern borders in the coming months and
probably years.
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