What's America's Fragility Score? 

By this measure, the U.S. scores very poorly: 4 out of a possible 5 on the Fragility Index.

There is a certain logic to the idea that stability is a good predictor for future stability: if a nation's economy and governance are stable and devoid of disorder, this trajectory of stability will be durable, right?

Well, actually, no. Nassim Nicholas Taleb and co-author Gregory F. Treverton argue in their essay The Calm Before the Storm: Why Volatility Signals Stability and Vice Versathat "the best indicator of a country’s future stability is not past stability but moderate volatility in the relatively recent past."

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