International security

U.S. drawing a line against Putin in Europe


U.S. military officials worry about two scenarios in particular. One is a replay of Russia’s hybrid warfare in Ukraine. The fear is that Putin might spark an insurgency among the ethnic Russian population of the Baltics, but with deniable tactics — like propaganda, cyberwar and covert operatives — that might not obviously trigger the NATO treaty’s collective self-defense provision.

Another nightmare scenario is a lightning Russian strike into the eastern Baltics executed too quickly for NATO to check it. The resulting Russian foothold would be hard for NATO to dislodge.

U.S. officials firmly insist they will defend the NATO alliance. In a visit to Estonia last September, President Barack Obama vowed to protect the Baltics. “You lost your independence once before,” Obama said. “With NATO, you'll never lose it again."