Counterterrorism

Berto Jongman: Europol Report on Changes in ISIS Operations and Threat

Key findings below the fold

• The Paris attacks, and subsequent investigation, appear to indicate a shift towards a broader strategy of IS going global, of them specifically attacking France, but also the possibly of attacks against other Member States of the EU in the near future.

• Intelligence suggests that IS has developed an external action command trained for special forces style attacks in the international environment;

• IS terrorist cells currently operating in the EU are largely domestic and/or locally based;

• For foreign fighters the religious component in recruitment and radicalisation is being replaced by more social elements such as peer pressure and role modelling. Additionally the romantic prospect of being part of an important and exciting development, apart from more private considerations, may play a role. Suicide bombers see themselves more as heroes than as religious martyrs;

• A significant portion of foreign fighters have been diagnosed with mental problems prior to joining IS. Also, a large proportion of recruits have criminal records varying from petty crimes to more serious offences...