Cyberwars

Russia and America's Cyber Deterrence Dilemma

U.S. sanctions are unlikely to deter future Russian cyber attacks not only because of Washington’s limited ability to impose adequate costs on the senior Russian officials it believes have ordered the hacking, but because neither side appears prepared to accept mutual deterrence in the cyber domain. In the early 2000’s, the Russian side proposed negotiations towards a cyber arms control treaty, but at the time U.S. officials had little interest in constraining capabilities in which they expected to enjoy unrivaled dominance. Now, the Kremlin may view cyber attacks as an indispensable counterweight to U.S. and NATO dominance in the conventional military sphere, and thus the Russians may be less inclined to negotiate.

The simple truth is that if either side believes it can gain more by using cyber weapons than by preventing their use, deterrence will fail. So far, U.S. sanctions have underscored the urgency of the cyber threat, but they are not likely to reduce it.