Korea

The abilities—and limits—of North Korean early warning

At 2:00 a.m. on a quiet night, a North Korean navy vessel on routine patrol moves slowly north along the eastern coast of North Korea. The watch officer on the ship is the first to notice signs: a barely audible rumble of engines from the north and small objects glinting in the moonlight as they streak toward North Korean shores. By the time the sound of the engines fades, it is clear to all on board that 20 to 30 cruise missiles are headed toward targets in North Korea.

Immediately, the ship contacts East Sea Fleet headquarters, which passes word to national leadership in Pyongyang. The source of the missiles can’t be known for sure, but few doubt their origin: US destroyers well out in the Sea of Japan have launched Tomahawk cruise missiles in response to North Korea’s latest nuclear weapon test. The missiles, traveling 100 to 150 feet above the water at speeds of more than 800 kilometers per hour, will reach their targets in 10 to 15 minutes.

Though this scenario is fiction—and hopefully will stay that way—it raises some crucial questions about North Korea’s early warning systems. How effectively can they detect attacks? How much warning will they provide the North Korean leadership? How will the capabilities and condition of Pyongyang’s early warning systems affect the nation’s response to military action?