Climate security

Why blaming conflicts in Africa on climate change is misguided

The role of water crises in conflicts in places like Syria, Nigeria and Iran often feature in media and policy outlets. Many believe that climate change could spark future conflicts. But research shows that most conflicts are driven by factors other than the effects of climate change.

Some research suggests that droughts actually reduce, rather than cause, conflict. Similarly, in a recent paper I find that violent conflict across Africa is more frequent, on average, during times of higher agricultural productivity than during periods of scarcity. It is therefore misguided to blame violence on climate change alone.

That’s not to say that there aren’t situations in which drought conditions can foster conflict. One example is in parts of Somalia. But this happens much less frequently than conventional wisdom might suggest. More often than not, climate change, which can trigger droughts and floods, is just one of many possible contributing factors.