Outer space

On National Security | Optimism and caution sums up the outlook for 2019

It’s that time of the year when predictably hyperbolic headlines flood our inbox, when analysts dust off their crystal balls and try to prognosticate what is to come.

In the military space business, there are strong reasons to believe that 2019 could be a pivotal year. The biggest development to watch will be the space reorganization at the Department of Defense. Right now, the odds appear to be stacked against the Trump administration’s plan to establish a Space Force as a separate military service. But politics is notoriously unpredictable.

Aside from the space reorganization, one major question that aerospace executives would like to see answered in 2019 is whether the increased rhetoric about space becoming militarized and contested translates into a different way of doing business.

“Are we going to see a change in behavior on the part of the customer?” asked Robin Lineberger, leader of the global and U.S. aerospace and defense sector at the consulting firm Deloitte.

Space is becoming an important part of the overall defense industry ecosystem, and global tensions could pose a threat to space assets such as satellites. Given these trends, Lineberger noted, DoD must accelerate the development of resilient space systems. The expectation is that 2019 “will be the year when they start to take real action on process to enable alternative, agile and simpler ways to develop capabilities.”