International security

Venezuela: None of Our Business

Usually in the name of anti-communism, though in reality mostly for the benefit of American oil companies, the US has continuously intervened to ensure “friendly” regimes in Caracas.

That began to backfire in 1998 with the election of Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chavez. Chavez cultivated closer relations with communist (Cuba and China) and former communist (Russia) countries, while implementing socialist economic programs.

Two decades later, Venezuela is an economic and humanitarian wreck. American politicians blame Chavez/Maduro and socialism for the country’s decline. Maduro and his supporters blame US sanctions and secret support for the opposition.

Both sides are right, but on only one of those claims is the US rightfully positioned to act. It should lift all economic sanctions on Venezuela, withdraw diplomatic recognition of any claimant, close its embassy, and leave a note on the door: “Work this out yourselves; when you have, let us know if you’d like to resume relations.”

Drones

Meet the Robot that Imitates Birds

A new robot has a capability most robots just don’t have: It can both walk and fly. The robot is known as LEONARDO, an acronym for LEg ON Aerial Robotic DrOne.
“Initially, it was developed with the idea of designing explorers systems that can combine legged mobility and fast aerial mobility to do autonomous explorations,” said Alireza Ramezani, an assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at Northeastern University.
The robot built at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) Center for Autonomous Systems and Technologies, is about 2.5 ft (0.8 m) tall and it stands on thin, flexed legs. With a body made primarily of carbon fiber, the robot is strong, but weighs only six pounds. It has thrusters on either side of the torso, capable of providing thrust in either direction, and are powerful enough for flight. But that’s not their primary function. “The idea is not to create a quadcopter,” Ramezani said. “The idea is to have a machine that can leverage its legs and the thrusters to, for example, enhance its jumping capability.”

Information security

Intelligence Transparency– But For What?

The new National Intelligence Strategy released last week by DNI Dan Coats affirms transparency as a value and as a strategic priority for U.S. intelligence.

The declared purpose of intelligence transparency is to raise public esteem for intelligence and to engender public trust. But because the policy is framed primarily as a public relations effort, the resulting transparency is limited unnecessarily.

“Through transparency we will strengthen America’s faith that the Intelligence Community seeks the truth, and speaks the truth,” DNI Coats said.

“This will be our hallmark, and I cannot stress this enough — this is not a limitation on us. This will make us stronger. It earns trust. It builds faith, and boosts our credibility around the world for our mission. It is the right thing to do,” he said on January 22.

The latest iteration of intelligence transparency was strongly shaped by the immediate post-Snowden environment, and it began, under then-DNI James Clapper, as an effort to restore public confidence which had been shaken by his disclosures. The legitimacy and legality of U.S. intelligence surveillance activities had been called into question, and the scope of domestic intelligence collection was revealed to a surprising new extent. In response, the intelligence transparency initiative therefore emphasized disclosure of IC legal authorities, oversight mechanisms, and the nature of IC electronic surveillance programs.

(Similar transparency has not extended to covert action, overhead reconnaissance, procurement, contracting, or numerous other areas. Declassification has been highlighted but has been preferentially focused on topics that are historically and substantively remote, such as the 1968 Tet Offensive.)

Information security

Wikileaks Takes A Swipe At 'Famously Secret' Vatican's Power Struggle

Wikileaks, the tell-anything anti-secrecy organization, on Wednesday took aim at one of the world's most secretive institutions, the Vatican, releasing a small collection of documents about a power struggle involving Pope Francis, a leading traditionalist cardinal, and a medieval Catholic order of knights.

The documents offered little new about a fight that two years ago was widely covered in the media. Their contents seem especially paltry at a time when the Vatican is embroiled in full-fledged scandals on multiple continents. But the release represented the first time Wikileaks has turned its spotlight on the often-acrimonious internal affairs of the Holy See, and some Vatican watchers wondered whether more damaging secrets might start to escape the city-state walls.

"The fact itself, Wikileaks entering the internal affairs of the Vatican, is an alarm bell," said Marco Politi, a veteran Vatican watcher. "The subject itself is not interesting. These are old diatribes, old fights. But the important thing will be the next step. Will there be a subsequent Wikileaks [release] on something not previously revealed? Should Wikileaks pull out stuff regarding pedophilia or banking scandals, then we would be onto something new."

Failed coup

Coup Against Venezuela's Constitution – Self-Proclaimed President Guaido’s Envoy

Sputnik has interviewed Gustavo Tarre, ambassador to the Organisation of American States (OAS) that Venezuela’s National Assembly appointed despite a decision by the legitimate government under Nicolas Maduro to withdraw the country’s membership in the organisation.

Gustavo Tarre was appointed "special representative" to the OAS by the National Assembly in late January in order to coordinate "with the organisation the necessary actions for the restoration of the constitutional order" in Venezuela amid a deepening political crisis in the country. The statement was made after in 2017 Venezuela announced plans to withdraw from the OAS, saying the organisation interfered in Caracas’ internal affairs.

Tarre’s appointment comes as political turbulence in the Latin American state broke out after opposition leader Juan Guaido proclaimed himself interim president in late January. This decision prompted almost immediate recognition from US President Donald Trump and some European states. The recognition of Guaido’s presidency was lambasted by a number of states, including Russia, Mexico, and Uruguay who voiced support for Maduro as the only legitimate president of Venezuela.

Weather security

How dangerous (and historic) is the Polar Vortex hitting the Midwest?

...The cold air came, of course, from the Arctic. Events were set in motion several weeks ago, when the normal westerlies circling the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes at an altitude of 20 to 50 miles, forming what’s called the stratospheric polar vortex, broke down into a disorganized mess. This breakdown, which seems to be more common in recent years, sets the stage for large excursions of warm air toward the pole and cold air toward lower latitudes.

Then, over a week ago, a seemingly inconsequential storm spun up in the Sea of Japan and moved eastward across the Pacific. As it continued spinning, it was able to ingest part of a plume of moisture, an atmospheric river originating in steamy tropical air near the Philippines. The moisture reinvigorated the storm as it was carried aloft and condensed into precipitation. 

Partly because of this invigoration, the downstream jet stream bent northward, then toward the east and then back southward, creating an upper-level ridge. Often, you’ll get a new winter storm forming downstream of such a ridge, in a process called downstream development. 

Sanctions

European countries set up payment channel with Iran to bypass US sanctions

European countries have joined forces to establish their own payment channel to Iran and circumvent United States sanctions, according to German broadcaster NDR.
Germany, France and Britain have been working for months to establish a measure allowing payments between Europe and Iran to continue, in the wake of the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in May.
Now the European countries have officially established that channel, named INSTEX -- an acronym for Instrument in Support Of Trade Exchanges -- NDR reported Thursday, in a move likely to displease Washington.
"We have been looking for ways to obtain this agreement because we are firmly convinced that it serves our strategic security interests in Europe," German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said during a press briefing in Brussels.
"We do not want Iran to get out of this agreement and back into uranium enrichment. This has to do with our security interests in Europe," he said.
Maas added that Germany was "working very closely" with France, Britain and the European Union to "implement this special-purpose vehicle."
For its part, the French Foreign Ministry told CNN a joint statement would be sent out later Thursday when EU foreign ministers meet in Bucharest.

EMP security

China, Other Regimes Developing EMP Bombs That Can Wipe Out 90 Percent of Populations

A newly released U.S. congressional study says that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are developing powerful weapons that won’t kill people directly but can cripple critical life-sustaining infrastructure and cause mass populations to eventually die out.

The study, titled “Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-arms Cyber Warfare” was written in July 2017 by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, an expert on national and homeland security and director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, a congressional advisory board. It was only cleared for public release by the U.S. Department of Defense in July 2018.

Last week, the report was published for the first time, as reported by the Washington Free Beacon.

Any nuclear weapon can generate electromagnetic pulses (EMP). But EMP bombs, sometimes referred to as sixth-generation weapons, can generate strong gamma rays and other radiation that spread very quickly. The radiation interacts with the oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the air to generate an extremely strong electromagnetic pulse. These pulses can damage all electrical and electronic equipment within the radius of the bomb.

Meanwhile, a super-EMP bomb, also known as a nuclear EMP, causes a nuclear explosion through electromagnetic radiation, the study noted.

Drug smuggling

Spanish police bust drug smuggling ring that was using drones to spy on authorities

Spanish police have cracked down on a drug smuggling ring that was using drones to spy on law enforcement and make sure the coast was clear while they conducted their illicit business.

Officers arrested 12 members of the ring, all Spanish nationals, who they attribute with trafficking over six tons of hashish into the country over the last few months, worth about $5.7 million. Hashish is a potent marijuana product that comes from the resin of the cannabis plant, and it is much stronger than the herbal drug.

Police discovered a drone, radio frequency inhibitor and several smartphones during their raid, and deemed that the 10 men and two women associated with the operation were using the technology to monitor the coast of the southern town where they were arrested, La Linea de la Concepcion.

“Some of those who were arrested were highly trained in the use of unmanned drones, which were used when a boat full of hashish neared the coast to land, in order to monitor a possible police presence,” police said.

Electronic surveillance

GCHQ spy centre falls foul of law – over environmental permit

The UK government’s internet surveillance centre, GCHQ, may be aware of many things, but the need for an environmental permit for its backup power generators is not among them. The site’s generators do not have the necessary paperwork and so are being run unlawfully, it has been revealed.

GCHQ – Government Communications Headquarters – in Cheltenham is the secret services’ listening station and in 2013 Edward Snowden revealed to the Guardian the vast amount of data it harvests from fibre-optic internet cables. As a result, GCHQ’s data centre is one of the largest in the UK.

Big data centres require a robust back-up electricity system in case of power cuts. These are provided by an array of diesel generators that emit exhaust fumes when in use. For some years, those above a certain small size require permits from the Environment Agency, under the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED), which regulates air pollution.

However, trade publication The Ends Report discovered that GCHQ has failed to obtain such a permit. The Environment Agency (EA) confirmed this to the Guardian and said it was investigating the matter.

International security

Report puts cold water on Polish ‘Fort Trump’ idea

A new report warns Poland against the temptation of relying on a “Fort Trump” to guard against the threat of Russian aggression.

The recommendation by Friends of Europe, a leading think tank here, comes after the Polish government has lobbied Washington to permanently station American troops at a base in the NATO country, to be named after the American president. Warsaw’s aspirations were met with skepticism in Europe and by some U.S. defense experts, who fear that such a move could been seen as questioning the alliance’s commitment to collective defense.

The think tank’s report contends that Poland is led by a “reclusive politician haunted by feelings of national insecurity and historical grievance.” According to the study, the chairman of the ruling party Law and Justice, Jarosław Kaczyński, sees enemies and threats everywhere and safety, if at all, only in the “tightest possible” bilateral defence relationship with the United States rather than in the “collective embrace” of European partners and NATO allies.

Economic security

Government shutdown cost US economy $11bn

The 35-day partial shutdown of the US government cost about $11bn and shaved 0.2% off the nation’s annual economic growth forecasts, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said on Monday.

The shutdown triggered by a fight over funding for Donald Trump’s proposed border wall with Mexico ended on Friday and was the longest in US history.

According to the CBO, the shutdown hurt economic growth because it affected roughly 800,000 workers and delayed federal spending on goods and services.

Much of the money will be recouped now the government is open again but the CBO calculates $3bn will never be recovered and the full impact of the closure – which left hundreds of thousands of federal workers and contractors without pay – may be larger.

The CBO warned “all of the estimated effects and their timing are subject to considerable uncertainty”.

End of shutdown: workers left with debts, bad credit and shattered trust

 

Read more

The five-week shutdown delayed approximately $18bn in federal discretionary spending for compensation and purchases of goods and services and suspended some federal services.

Cybersecurity

Theoretical Ransomware Attack Could Lead to Global Damages Says Report

According to a speculative cyber risk scenario prepared by Cambridge University for risk management purposes, a ransomware strain that would manage to impact more than 600,000 businesses worldwide within 24 hours would potentially lead to damages of billions not covered by insurers.

First of all, it is important to understand that although the numbers look very scary, this type of an attack is practically impossible to pull off at the moment when taking into consideration the current capabilities of malware, anti-malware, and current IT ecosystems.

To illustrate this point, in two of the theoretical scenarios used to create the report the malware used in the speculative global scale ransomware attack is capable of infecting machines running two operating systems, with a currently impossible to imagine "potential attack surface of 97.3% devices worldwide." 

Also, the speculative malware infection scenarios presented by this report can easily be avoided by businesses which would use off-site/offline backups of at least critical systems and data as countermeasures for this type of digital disasters.

Weather security

Millions gearing up for polar vortex, as temperatures plunge to lows not seen in a generation

It'll be a cold snap for the ages — the Ice Ages!

The East, the Midwest and even the Deep South, are bracing for a once-in-a-generation arctic blast that is forecast to leave 75 million Americans shivering in subzero temperatures, meteorologists said Tuesday.

By the end of Wednesday, 85 percent of the U.S. land area and 230 million Americans will experience temperatures of 32 degrees or colder, thanks to this extended polar vortex.

And 25 percent of America will get down to 0 degrees in dangerous cold that will touch 75 million U.S. residents.

"Historic cold, unprecedented cold, these are all adjectives you could use to describe this," NBC meteorologist Kathryn Prociv said.

This arctic blast will surely freeze the texting thumbs of younger Americans.

Financial safety

Mystery of the Venezuelan gold: Bank of England is independent of UK govt – but not of foreign govt

Pirates don't have to look like Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean. They can fly the Union Jack rather than the skull and crossbones. They can be called the Bank of England rather than the Jolly Roger.

The 'Old Lady of Threadneedle Street' is a port in a stormy world for all kinds of countries in which to moor their national wealth. And it's not even necessarily voluntary.
After the fall of the communist regime in Albania, I had a brief tenure as joint chairman of the Britain-Albania Society with the Tory MP Steve Norris. He and I had to move mountains to try and persuade the British government (which then entirely controlled the Bank of England) to give the Albanians back their gold, which had been seized by the British during Second World War.

This week's brigandry – unnoticed by any commentator I read – took place in an era when the Bank of England is officially independent of government control. And yet it was triggered by a phone call from a foreign government official.

The bank's decision to seize – a polite word for steal – more than a billion dollars' worth of Venezuelan gold was reportedto have been ordered by the governor after a call from US National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – not even the president himself.

Financial safety

Federal Reserve To Embark On Monetary Policy 'U-Turn'

The Federal Reserve has started its first monetary policy meeting of the year, and according to one fund manager, it will be the latest central bank to signal a dovish shift in its monetary policy which will ultimately drive gold prices higher.

The gold market has pushed to its highest level in seven months as prices hold above $1,300 an ounce. April gold futures last traded at $1,314.70 an ounce, up 0.39% on the day.

Gold’s move come as the Federal Reserve is expected to strike a dovish tone in its monetary policy statement and in central bank chair Jerome Powell’s ensuing press conference. Central bank officials, including Powell, have been hesitant to signal further tightening in monetary policy following its December hike. In two events at the start of the year Powell said that because of low inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve can be “patient” on interest rate hikes. According to media reports, the central bank could also signal a slowdown in its balance-sheet reduction program, which Powell has previously described as on auto-pilot.

Drug smuggling

El Chapo’s drug tunnels, explained

Gold-plated guns, stealth submarines, and lavish mansions filled with piles of money: The world’s most powerful drug trafficker, Joaquín Guzmán Loera — better known as “El Chapo” — had all of those things. But his most valuable possession might have been a shovel.

For the past few months, Guzmán has been on trial in New York City for more than 10 counts of criminal activity, including drug trafficking, money laundering, and weapons violations in the pursuit of violence.

After months of hearing evidence, the jury will soon decide his fate and anything but a guilty verdict would be a shock. Throughout the trial, the evidence presented has painted a damning picture of the violent acts El Chapo committed as the leader of the Sinaloa cartel. But in addition to gruesome anecdotes, the evidence has also revealed one of the Mexican trafficker’s most important tools: tunnels.

Cybersecurity

The Pentagon’s Cybersecurity Is Falling Behind

The U.S. military’s cybersecurity capabilities aren’t advancing fast enough to stay ahead of the “onslaught of multipronged” attacks envisioned by adversaries, the Pentagon’s combat testing office is warning.

Despite some progress in fending off attacks staged by in-house “Red Teams,” the testing office said “we estimate that the rate of these improvements is not outpacing the growing capabilities of potential adversaries who continue to find new vulnerabilities and techniques to counter fixes.”

Automation and artificial intelligence are beginning to “make profound changes to the cyber domain,” a threat that the military hasn’t yet fully grasped how to counter, Robert Behler, the Defense Department’s director of operational test and evaluation, said in his annual assessment of cyber threats, which was obtained by Bloomberg News.

The test office’s findings may be discussed on Tuesday during a Senate Armed Services hearing focused on Pentagon cyber policy with Chief Information Officer Dana Deasy.

Weapons

The Army's Experimental Mobile 155mm Howitzer (Big Gun) Could Be a Game-Changer

Towed howitzers cannot keep up with the Strykers when they maneuver cross country. On long road marches, the towed howitzers need to refuel three times for every Stryker refueling. The towed howitzers in both Stryker and Infantry BCTs take too long setting up into position to be responsive for calls for fire. Additionally, because they also take so long to pack up and start moving, they are highly susceptible to being destroyed by enemy counterbattery fires.

The immediate solution is to make towed artillery more mobile. Enter Hawkeye and Brutus. The former is a 105-mm howitzer mounted on a High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV or Humvee) chassis. The latter is a 155-mm howitzer married to a medium tactical vehicle platform.

The Hawkeye is the lightest, most highly maneuverable self-propelled howitzer in the world. Both it and Brutus can set up and be ready to fire in less than 2 minutes, about a fourth of the time needed for its towed cousins, and conduct a two-round fire mission in 3 minutes. This not only translates into more effective indirect fires in support of infantry and Stryker BCTs but into greater survivability for their crews.

Health security

A CURE FOR CANCER? ISRAELI SCIENTISTS SAY THEY THINK THEY FOUND ONE

A small team of Israeli scientists think they might have found the first complete cure for cancer.

“We believe we will offer in a year’s time a complete cure for cancer,” said Dan Aridor, of a new treatment being developed by his company, Accelerated Evolution Biotechnologies Ltd. (AEBi), which was founded in 2000 in the ITEK incubator in the Weizmann Science Park. AEBi developed the SoAP platform, which provides functional leads to very difficult targets.

“Our cancer cure will be effective from day one, will last a duration of a few weeks and will have no or minimal side-effects at a much lower cost than most other treatments on the market,” Aridor said. “Our solution will be both generic and personal.”

It sounds fantastical, especially considering that an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases are diagnosed worldwide each year, according to reports by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Further, every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the second leading cause of death (second only to cardiovascular disease).

Aridor, chairman of the board of AEBi and CEO Dr. Ilan Morad, say their treatment, which they call MuTaTo (multi-target toxin) is essentially on the scale of a cancer antibiotic – a disruption technology of the highest order.

Defense

Defense Stocks Are in a Funk. Their Earnings Could End It.

Defense stocks have been a little like the federal government lately: not working.

The aerospace and defense components of the S&P 500 dropped 10% in 2018 even though earnings increased nearly 13%. The sector now trades for about 16 times estimated 2019 earnings, down from 21 times a year ago.

Those cheaper valuations, plus a solid outlook for military spending, are two good reasons to revisit the sector now. If you need a third, Barron’s likes defense.

We made a bullish call on Boeing (ticker: BA) stock in November, the same month we warned about a coming hypersonic arms race that could channel more cash to defense companies. Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) are two of the Barron’s Roundtable picks for 2019.

A year ago, when valuations in the sector were higher, investors were more comfortable with the outlook for military spending and the federal government hadn’t just been closed for five weeks.

Innovations & technologies

Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Devs Patent New Rocket Refueling Tech

The glider system, capable of accelerating to up to 27 times the speed of sound, was unveiled by the Russian president last March as one of six new Russian weapons designed to preserve the global strategic balance.

Tactical Missiles Corporation JSC, the Korolyov-based armaments concern tasked with mass production of the new Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, has patented a new method for fueling rockets, according to a press statement on the company's website.

Doing away with traditional stationary storage systems in favour of a new mobile system fueled from rail-based tanker cars, the new fueling system promises to independently prepare fuel, achiving the required temperature and saturation, ahead of the rocket fueling stage.

The company clarified that with several such mobile systems available, it will be possible to easily transfer them to whatever region of the country a launch is carried out at. Secondly, the system's components will be built using modern hardware components, eventually making it possible to fully automate the process of preparing the rocket propellant.

Seismic security

Yellowstone volcano ACTIVITY: USGS confirms record-breaking eruptions OFF THE CHARTS

YELLOWSTONE volcano activity went completely off the charts in 2018, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has confirmed after a year of geyser eruptions.

Yellowstone volcano’s geysers erupted at an unusually high rate last year, breaking all known eruption records. USGS data collected since the start of last year has shown 2018 to be the most thrilling year for Yellowstone in a long time. The geological agency has now said Yellowstone’s world-famous Steamboat geyser erupted a total of 32-times – beating its previous 1964 record. The USGS said: “If you were a geyser watcher, it was surely one of the most memorable years in a long time.”

Yellowstone volcano’s Steamboat Geyser is the tallest active geyser in the world, rivalled only by Waimangu Geyser in New Zealand.

Located in the Norris Geyser Basin of the US National Park, Steamboat Geyser is live evidence of the intense volcanic processes deep below Yellowstone.

The geyser can go for years at a time without erupting jets of scorching hot water but 2018 proved to be something of an anomaly.

The last time Steamboat erupted this frequently was in 1964 when park officials noted 29 hot water eruptions.