Anticipatory intelligence
Anticipatory intelligence involves collecting and analyzing
information to identify new, emerging trends, changing conditions,
and undervalued developments, which challenge long-standing
assumptions and encourage new perspectives, as well as
identify new opportunities and warn of threats to U.S. interests.
Anticipatory intelligence usually leverages a cross-disciplinary
approach, and often utilizes specialized tradecraft to identify
emerging issues from “weak signals,” cope with high degrees of
uncertainty, and consider alternative futures.
Anticipatory intelligence looks to the future as foresight (identifying
emerging issues), forecasting (developing potential scenarios),
or warning. Anticipatory intelligence explores the potential for
cascading events or activities to reinforce, amplify, or accelerate
conflict. It may uncover previously unconnected groups or regions
and include indicators or benchmarks to identify key developments
as trends change over time. Anticipatory intelligence assesses risk,
intelligence gaps, and uncertainties by evaluating the probability
of occurrence and potential effects of a given development on U.S.
national security.
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