European security

Europeans to the rescue?

Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will withdraw from the INF-treaty puts Europeans in a difficult spot. Many do not share the administration’s optimism that Russia can be pressured into compliance through the deployment of additional ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles. And Europeans are generally skeptical about the likelihood of negotiating a better, multilateral agreement on short- and intermediate-range nuclear force. Thus, the President’s decision, announced two weeks ahead of the US midterms on the sidelines of a campaign rally, is perceived as the result of domestic pressures and John Bolton’s ideological opposition on any treaty restricting the US military potential, rather than as the result of careful deliberation and consultations. Three concerns top the European agenda:

First, Trump’s decision appears to hand Putin an easy victory and lets Russia off the hook. After INF has expired, there will be no legal basis to challenge Russia on producing and deploying new INF-range systems in Europe. The range of the infamous 9M729, which is suspected of being a violation of the INF-treaty, will likely remain a secret. INF treaty mechanisms, such as the Special Verification Commission, can no longer be used to address suspected violations. Meanwhile, a key NATO partner and ally takes the blame for the treaty’s collapse.

Second, the unilateral decision to withdraw threatens NATO cohesion. Allies were informed but probably not consulted. The debate on whether and where to deploy new US INF-range system could further drive Europeans and Americans apart. Anti-Americanism could be fueled at a time when populism already undermines European democracies and is actively exploited by Russia in order to weaken Western democracies.