Economic security

Businesses are getting nervous, and that could make a recession a reality

Tax revenues are falling and the nation's finances are a mess. The federal budget deficit is on track to breach $1 trillion this year, according to Moody's Analytics projections. A US deficit of that scale has happened only a few times, including in World War II and at the height of the financial crisis.

No wonder the collective psyche of business managers is fragile. Nearly half of chief financial officers at major companies interviewed recently by Duke University think a recession is likely this year. Small business optimism has fallen sharply since peaking last summer. The last time Moody's Analytics' weekly online survey of businesses was as weak as it is today was when the economy was just coming out of the Great Recession about a decade ago.

As long as businesses hold firm and don't cut back further on hiring, the economic expansion should continue. The economy should even make something of a comeback by mid-year.

However, this assumes nothing else goes wrong — like another government shutdown. But President Trump's newly proposed budget for 2020 includes billions of dollars for the Mexican border wall. Given that there is little chance the Democratic House will go along, odds of another shutdown just jumped.