Weather security

Scientists develop a new method to predict El Niño’s extreme weather 2x early

El Niño, which roughly translates to little boy in Spanish, was originally coined by fishermen off the coast of South America to signify the emergence of warm water in the Pacific Ocean near the beginning of a new year.


The events caused by El Niño, which is an abnormal warming of ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, can have a global impact as it triggers extreme weather conditions.

Scientists have only been able to forecast El Niño weather events around six months in advance. However, a new method could help predict the turbulent weather forecast a year early, giving the public advance warning of conditions that might contribute to extreme and dangerous weather. The previous lead time was six months.

A study, published in the journal PNAS this week, uses an approach to forecast El Niño based on the events that took place during the year before.