Analytic tradecraft standards

THE LIMITS OF INTUITION: ARMY INTELLIGENCE SHOULD EMBRACE ANALYTIC TRADECRAFT STANDARDS

Army intelligence lags behind most of the intelligence community in one key respect. In 2007, the intelligence community established analytic tradecraft standards to provide a common framework for critical and creative thinking when conducting all-source intelligence analysis. The Army, however, has not adopted these standards, leading to an analytic workforce that is less proficient in applying tradecraft than its civilian counterparts. The root cause of this failure is a common misconception that analytic tradecraft standards are applicable only at the strategic level. At higher levels, the value of analytic tradecraft is more obvious because intelligence analysts are focused on supporting senior decision-makers — primarily combatant commanders and civilian policymakers — who often approach problems deliberately and address longer-term issues. Some will argue that analytic tradecraft is incompatible with the rapid pace of operations at lower echelons, in which commanders are focused on preparing for local battles and operations. This misconception is preventing the Army from recognizing an opportunity to help its intelligence analysts overcome the limits of intuition and ensure rigor in their analytic products.