'Clear losers' in 2020 election: Pollsters
Weeks after the 2020 elections, several races have yet to be called, but a clear loser has emerged – pollsters. The polls understated the percentage of the Republican vote in 48 of 50 states, and 15 of the 16 Senate races, according to an analysis from Ohio State University political scientist Thomas Wood.
At the national level, President Trump outperformed the polls significantly. Major surveys in the last week before the election, including Economist/YouGov, CNBC/Change Research, Quinnipiac, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, all had Joe Biden winning in a landslide – by 10 percentage points or more. Biden’s actual margin of victory in the popular vote is less than four points
The polls also underestimated Trump’s support in most swing states, where around 100,000 votes in a few battlegrounds account for Biden’s victory. In particular, Biden won Wisconsin by some 10,000 votes -- less than a single percentage point -- but polls from Reuters/Ipsos and the New York Times/Siena had him up double digits. An ABC News/Washington Post poll done in the Badger State the week before the election had Biden up 17 points.
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