Intelligence/
Fostering better prediction
Intelligence
agencies, the spies and spooks and analysts grouped under three letter
acronyms, exist in part to answer a difficult question that dates back to
antiquity: Is it possible to predict the future, and, if so, how do we do it? A
study published this month in the Journal
of Experimental Psychology answers the question at least in part:
Prediction is a skill, but it takes a special environment to develop that
skill.
To understand how prediction works, researchers wanted
to see if certain behaviors—such as making a lot of predictions, taking time to
consider a question before answering it, or just having a working knowledge of
politics in the region in question—effected a forecaster's accuracy.
For the experiment, participants competed in two
nine-month-long forecasting tournaments. The questions for the tournament were
selected by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.
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