War on terror

CIA report warned assassination programme might backfire

Evidence for successful assassinations is slight. One of the few examples claimed to have had positive results is the assassination of Colombia's FARC leaders Raul Reyes and Ivan Rios, which is thought to have eroded the coherency of the FARC. Similarly, morale of the rank and file of HAMAS is said to have weakened as a result of the assassination of its founder and co-founder Sheik Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi by Israeli missile attacks in 2004. The CIA report nevertheless pointed out that “HAMAS' highly disciplined nature, social service network and reserve of respected leaders allowed it to reorganize after the killing..."

The CIA claimed that the paranoia its assassination programme was generating could be helpful: “HVT operations typically force the remaining leaders to increase their security discipline, which may compromise a leader's effectiveness.” HVT operations had forced Osama bin Laden to stay in hiding, rely on low-tech communications and avoid meeting his subordinates. The CIA considered that this had “affected his ability to command his organization”. Bin Laden was seen to be isolated and out of command. Bin Laden's assassination in May 2011 occurred as President Obama prepared to run for his second term in office.