Counter-terrorism is a relentless challenge to spot the critical intelligence
It is the eternal conundrum facing every intelligence official. How to filter which of the tens of thousands of snippets of information, the terabytes of chatter, tipoffs, sightings or wiretaps, to prioritise. How to decipher the weak signals of embryonic plots or telltale tradecraft of Islamist operatives. Such decisions underpin the safety of every European state.
During the aftermath of the November Paris attacks, western intelligence officials suspected that Brussels was both a probable source and target of a follow-up atrocity. The failure to thwart Tuesday’s attacks exposed serious weaknesses in Belgium’s intelligence assessment capability. Effective intelligence work requires intensive manpower, both to analyse data and to gather it. Counter-terrorism experts believe Belgium can do neither adequately.
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