Ambiguous warfare
Although a Russian advance into alliance territory with conventional forces is feasible and certainly represents the most dangerous scenario facing the West, many argue this is not likely. The more likely scenario is an indirect Russian approach using what many have referred to as “ambiguous warfare.” The threats from ambiguous warfare — a term that is sometimes interchangeable with hybrid warfare and gray zone warfare— are characterized by their employment in a fog of ambiguity wherein attribution is difficult, indirect or nonmilitary means are prominent, and adversary intentions may be difficult to discern. Examples include distributed cyberattacks, the exploitation of ostensibly independent mass media, or the leveraging of ethnic diasporas to foment discontent and instability. If left unchecked, this threat to Eastern Europe could prove extremely costly, undermining state authority and alliance unity.
Although a Russian advance into alliance territory with conventional forces is feasible and certainly represents the most dangerous scenario facing the West, many argue this is not likely. The more likely scenario is an indirect Russian approach using what many have referred to as “ambiguous warfare.” The threats from ambiguous warfare — a term that is sometimes interchangeable with hybrid warfare and gray zone warfare— are characterized by their employment in a fog of ambiguity wherein attribution is difficult, indirect or nonmilitary means are prominent, and adversary intentions may be difficult to discern. Examples include distributed cyberattacks, the exploitation of ostensibly independent mass media, or the leveraging of ethnic diasporas to foment discontent and instability. If left unchecked, this threat to Eastern Europe could prove extremely costly, undermining state authority and alliance unity.
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