International security

NATO In The Shadow Of Brexit

The dominant vibe in Warsaw is all about unity. The results are mostly pre-cooked. And there should be few surprises.

With little dissent to speak of, in the next couple days NATO is expected to beef up its forces in its vulnerable front-line states in the east; forge closer ties with traditionally neutral Finland and Sweden; and upgrade the importance of cyberdefense.

"I hope that we are going to prove that the transatlantic alliance is in better shape than ever before," Polish President Andrzej Duda said.

But lingering tensions lurk below the surface at a summit NATO officials describe as the most consequential since the end of the Cold War.

The centrifugal forces tugging at the European Union are also threatening to strain the transatlantic alliance.

The traditional differences among member states about how forcefully to confront Moscow, however latent at the moment, can easily become manifest again.

A split is emerging between NATO members who see the greatest threat to the alliance coming from the east, from a revanchist Russia, and those who would prioritize the danger from the south, from radical Islam.