How Stalinism Explains the Strategy, Appeal and Vulnerabilities of ISIS
The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is frequently described as an unprecedented threat, as the recent attacks in Brussels, Orlando, and Istanbul have reinforced its ability to conduct or inspire a wide range of strikes on a global scale. However, the group’s penchant for tactical innovation, and the fear which it elicits, obscures its conformity to a pattern which is evident in the rise and fall of another global revolutionary movement, namely Marxism-Leninism. ISIS represents a ‘Stalinist’ phase of Salafism featuring the concentration at one time and place of a universalist movement, dramatic escalation of violence, and fratricidal conflict within the revolutionary leadership.
Historical analogies are imperfect, and so understanding ISIS in terms of Stalinism will not reveal the key to defeating it. Policymakers should not conflate similarities between ISIS and the Soviet Union under Stalin with the revival of Cold War strategies and assumptions. Nonetheless, examining the relationship between the two entities identifies a range of likely short and long-term outcomes around which expectations and policies may converge.
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