Electoral battles

Shifting demographics in battleground states alter old rules

The rapid demographic changes that are giving traditional battleground states more of a blue hue in the 2016 presidential race have yet to sweep through Ohio, where white working-class voters have embraced Donald Trump’s brash style and populist message.

But Mr. Trump’s appeal has been less resonant in booming states like North Carolina and Virginia, where a rush of minorities and young professionals has poured in to score jobs and earn college degrees.

The shifting demographics have reshaped the presidential map and taken some of the shine off Ohio’s status as a bellwether in presidential elections: The state has picked the president in every election since going against John F. Kennedy in 1960.

“Ohio is both A) historically a little more Republican than the nation and B) demographically friendly to Trumpbecause it’s whiter than the nation, and its white electorate has a slightly lower education level than the white electorate nationally,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and author of “The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks Presidents.”