Intel support

Trump’s most important new partner: The intelligence community

The intelligence community sometimes makes mistakes, but it strives to create a fact-based, inductive view of the world. From as much data as it can acquire, it works to create general conclusions. Not surprisingly, there are often tensions with policymakers who tend to be deductive, trying to apply their vision to specific situations.

And there are special issues when data-based conclusions collide with vision-based expectations. We had long and serious discussions in 2007 when a draft estimate assessed that Iran had stopped work on an aspect of its nuclear weapons program. I suspect a similar dynamic unfolded in the Obama administration when evidence pointed to the rebirth of al-Qaeda in Iraq in the face of claims that the organization was “on the run.” The unpleasant fact is always contentious.

I’ve had my debates with presidents and vice presidents over intelligence estimates. I’ve argued over facts and analysis. But all this was done under the broad mantle of empiricism, the belief that truth emanated from evidence and experience, not from a priori reasoning, intuition or faith — even faith in self.