Prediction

How Trump's Election Victory Will Galvanize Kindred Spirits in Europe

To a great extent, Trump's victory and the success of the United Kingdom's referendum to leave the European Union are the result of the same trend. Emerging political forces in the United States and Europe blame globalization for the loss of jobs and present immigration as a threat to national identity and security. Their message resonates with people who do not see a benefit in free trade or flexible migration and who feel as if traditional parties do not understand their plight. Mainstream media outlets and opinion polls largely underestimated that segment of the electorate in the runup to both the U.S. election and the Brexit referendum. That they failed to foresee Trump's victory or that of the "leave" camp demonstrates the extent to which these emerging social and political trends have been minimized, disregarded or misunderstood.

The same political upheaval could manifest again over the course of Europe's busy 2017 electoral season. In March, the Netherlands — a prominent economic and political power in Northern Europe — will hold general elections. (Italy could join them if constitutional reforms fail in a December referendum, triggering early elections.) France, which boasts the Continent's second-largest economy, will hold presidential votes in April and May, followed by legislative elections in June. Toward the end of the year, the European Union's greatest political and economic force, Germany, will hold general elections in October.