Poll results

EU’s Nightmare Year Ends With Le Pen Risk Haunting Investors

After leading polling for the first-round presidential vote for most of the past year, Le Pen has slipped behind Francois Fillon since he claimed the nomination of the center-right Republicans in November. Le Pen would lose to Fillon by 66 percent to 34 percent in the runoff, according to a Kantar Sofres poll last month.

Bookmakers give the National Front leader about a 25 percent chance of turning that around over the next four months. At this point in the U.S. campaign, polling analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com gave Trump a 23 percent chance of winning.