Prediction
This year, eight conflicts were considered "top tier" risks:
- military conflict involving the United States, North Korea, and its neighboring countries;
- an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies over Iran's involvement in regional conflicts and support of militant proxy groups, including the Yemeni Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah;
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure and networks;
- a deliberate or unintended military confrontation between Russia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, stemming from assertive Russian behavior in Eastern Europe;
- an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea between China and one or more Southeast Asian claimants—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Vietnam;
- a mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally by either foreign or homegrown terrorist(s);
- intensified violence in Syria as government forces attempt to regain control over territory, with heightened tensions among external parties to the conflict, including the United States, Russia, and Iran;
- increased violence and instability in Afghanistan resulting from the Taliban insurgency and potential government collapse.
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