Forecasting

One of Wall Street's most-followed forecasters has a wild new prediction for the US economy

One model that forecasts the US economy's performance could shock even President Donald Trump if it ends up being accurate.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model projects that gross domestic product would increase at a 5.4% annualized rate in the first quarter.

The last time the economy grew that much was in the third quarter of 2003. If correct, this would be the first period of more than 5% growth since the third quarter of 2014. Additionally, the forecast is much higher than that of the most bullish economist polled in the Blue Chip forecast.

The model spiked Thursday after the Institute of Supply Management released monthly data on US manufacturing, which raised the outlook for the biggest driver of growth: consumer spending. Also, data on construction spending raised the Atlanta Fed's forecast for business investment via real private fixed-investment growth.