Intel gathering

North Korea Is Not a Case of Intelligence Failure

Historical precedent must be considered when establishing a framework with which to judge intelligence failures. The strategic surprise of the attack on Pearl Harbor, the terror attacks on 9/11, and the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) assessment that purportedly contributed to the Iraq War — these are among the most notable examples from America’s recent history, and they share two fundamental attributes: negligence and consequence.

Negligence appears in several forms. It can be traced to intelligence omissions — such as the failure to properly report indicators of an imminent Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor in 1941. It can also be about getting intelligence fundamentally incorrect. When referring to the Iraq WMD failure, former CIA Director Michael Hayden remarked, “It was our intelligence estimates, we were wrong. It was a clean swing and a miss. It was our fault.” In either case, significant intelligence failures require getting it significantly wrong — not just a matter of degree.

Intelligence failures also have grave consequences. During the Pearl Harbor attack 2,335 U.S. service members were killed and much of the U.S. Pacific Fleet was destroyed. The 9/11 attacks killed 2,977 people and the ensuing war on terror levied tremendous economic impacts on the nation. In the case of Iraq WMD assessments, the United States is still dealing with the consequences of what many consider a strategic blunder.