Economic security

Opinion: Stocks may already be in a bear market —here’s how long it could last

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 670 points on Monday, but it will hit bottom on Mar. 4, 2019, at 18,328.27.

That’s on the assumption that a major bear market began at the Jan. 26 highs, and that the ensuing bear market will be average both in terms of length and loss.

That would mean we face 11 more months of a declining market, in which the Dow DJIA, +2.84%  will drop another 5,205 points (or 22.1%) from its Jan. 26 peak.

Of course, we don’t know yet whether we’re in a major bear market. The Dow’s impressive rally on Monday surely is letting the bulls breathe a little more easily, since last Friday the Dow Theory, the oldest stock-market timing system in widespread use today, came within a hair’s breadth of issuing a major bear market signal.