U.S. elections

Midterm Elections Blue Wave Looking Doubtful, Says CBS News Head Pollster

The CBS News head pollster has some information for Democrats expecting a Blue Wave to take over the House and more in November’s midterm elections: It’s not looking good.

In Where Did You Get That Number?, a new book out Tuesday from Simon & Schuster, author Anthony Salvanto, the CBS pollster, explains his methodology for tracking the 2016 presidential election, considered one of the biggest upsets in electoral history, and how those lessons apply for the coming season.

Studying the exit polls in 2016 for CBS News coverage of the presidential election, Salvanto saw what was happening – Hillary Clinton was losing ground, and voters who hadn’t cast ballots were not likely to vote for her.  Salvanto delivered his verdict to the networks anchors and producers: “This is a contested race.”

The late deciders gave Trump the victory, Salvanto claims. CBS’s final 2016 poll gave him a big lead among voters who decided at the last minute.

Salvanto told the New York Post that comparing elections to horse races is wrong.  “The horse-race analogy is compelling but it’s wrong. “In a campaign, everything can change tomorrow.”