Economic security

Trump's Overconfidence May Bring 'Major Miscalculation': JPMorgan

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are starting to make forecast and strategy changes around the potential that President Donald Trump gets so overconfident in the robust economy and markets that he makes a “major miscalculation." The worry is that “U.S. economic and equity market resilience despite tariffs will embolden the President on all geopolitical fronts -- autos, Nafta and particularly Iran -- and thus risk a major miscalculation from sanctions that are tough to calibrate,” strategists led by John Normand wrote in a note Sept. 21. The strategists said that’s part of the reason the firm has boosted oil-price forecasts, with a spike in Brent to $90 a barrel “likely” on revised estimates of how much crude demand from Iran might drop as countries respect the U.S. sanctions due to begin in November.