Tick, Tick, Talk, 2019 Recession Coming
The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that event fulfilled, I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).
To confirm my bearish claim on the market's crash:
Several leading stock market indexes around the globe endured bear market declines in 2018. In the U.S. in December, the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) bottomed out 27.2% below its prior high. The widely-followed U.S. large cap barometer, the S&P 500 Index (SPX), just missed entering bear market territory, halting its decline 19.8% below its high.
But the Dow fell completely into bear territory and the NASDAQ even further into the bear's territory. Even the S&P hit an intraday low that was 20% down, so its stop right at the edge by the end of the day is nothing but a rounding error.
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