Prediction


Warning to Democrats: Economy points to a Trump win

President Donald Trump is facing an impeachment inquiry and trailing several leading Democratic candidates by significant margins in early national polls.

But according to a historically accurate model maintained by research firm Moody’s Analytics, he remains a strong favorite to win a second term based on economic trends in key swing states. As Democrats gather on stage in Ohio on Tuesday night for their fourth debate, the Moody’s model suggests they’ll need to take aim at Trump’s record on the economy to overcome his advantage.

The Moody’s model — which was perfect from 1980 until narrowly missing the 2016 outcome — finds that Trump would win fairly solidly based on three different sets of state-level economic and political data. One that focuses on pocketbook issues such as gas prices, home prices and personal income finds that, as of now, Trump would romp to a second term with 351 electoral votes.

“Democrats need to be on high alert. If history is any guide and we get typical turnout, they are going to lose,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and lead architect of the model. “They need to be at DEFCON 1 or it’s likely Trump will be reelected.”