Economic security

The Next Recession May Come By Stealth

Markets have been blowing hot and cold regarding the prospects of a recession in the U.S. The Institute of Supply Management’s November survey shows that the index of factory activities in the U.S. fell to 48.1 from 48.3 in October (any reading below 50 is indicative of a contraction). This is confounding the expectation that America’s domestic industrial production would improve in anticipation of a “deal” in the U.S.-China trade war. However, the Department of Labor also reported that 266,000 jobs have been added to the economy in November, bringing unemployment rate down to a historic low of 3.5%. A confusing situation has just been made more confusing.

It has been said that generals are always fighting the last war. It’s not that different when it comes to fighting economic downturns. Since the global financial crisis a decade ago, we have been scouring the horizon for any signs of financial fragility, such as asset bubbles, that could plunge us into the next global recession.