Navy

South China Sea of troubles

In 2020 the world should pay more attention to the South China Sea

IF 2019 WAS the year that strategic competition between China and America upended their trading relationship, 2020 will be the year of intensifying security competition. In both Beijing and Washington patience is waning and calls for action are escalating, making more direct and potentially dangerous encounters likelier. The world should pay more attention to one potential flashpoint in particular: the South China Sea.

In 2020 America will sail its ships through the Taiwan Strait once a month, and even send a major warship on a port visit. It will seek to expand Taiwan’s international space, for example by inviting Taiwan to the World Health Organisation and organising an unprecedented cabinet-level visit. President Xi Jinping will react strongly, increasing the frequency and sophistication of Chinese military activity opposite Taiwan, harassing American ships in transit and restricting foreigners’ access to Xinjiang and other restive parts of China. China will also raise its game on persuading Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners to switch allegiance; Haiti will make the switch. And China will use information operations, influence campaigns and economic incentives to boost its preferred candidate, Han Kuo-yu, in Taiwan’s presidential election in 2020.